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I thought I'd ask again to give someone the chance to answer correctly. The answer I got - that people in 1999 who went long were stupid but today the stock market will go up forever - really makes me want to weep for you..

I think my point has become obscured. In 1999 everyone thought the stock market would go up forever because of the internet. Today everyone thinks it will go up forever because of the Fed. WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE?

Interesting you should mention stops. The problem right now is that everyone thinks the Fed is providing the stop for us, no?

The internet did indeed create wealth. The <i>internet stock bubble</i> destroyed wealth on an unprecedented scale. My point was that near 100% bullishness in 2000 was justified by the internet meme. Today it's the Fed meme. Same hype, different meme.

1999: The internet is the most revolutionary invention in history and will dramatically change every aspect of human interaction. We are in an entirely new paradigm now where 'old order' metrics such as earnings have no meaning. For the foreseeable future the land grab is all that matters. New...

It's lose-lose for Cyprus, that's for sure. Now.. anyone on here reckon this won't escalate? Or will Draghi and Bernanke keep saving the world for ever and ever and ever?

But I have a feeling you will understand by the end of 2013 :)

You clearly don't understand the concept of bear market rallies ("dead cat bounces") which are far more rapid and dramatic than true bull markets. They also fizzle out rapidly and dramatically.. I assume your position is: market history is meaningless, because every situation is different?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/picturegalleries/9945516/The-worlds-tallest-hotels.html A new world's tallest hotel, the JW Marriott Marquis in Dubai, has just opened. Oh dear. Dubai + World's tallest = ??

Meredith Whitney has recently capitulated, saying she is now more "bullish on US stocks than at any time in her career". Bob Janjuah and Nouriel Roubini seem very quiet. Albert Edwards too is saying a lot less. Look at it this way: technically we have been in a secular bear market since 2000...

These people (ok not necessarily corporate finance guys) put their bank's balance sheet at risk and expect to walk away with 10% of the upside and 0% of the downside. WTF?

Thanks for the insight, Smoker. It's interesting that pretty much all the big investment banks have been in the market making business for decades, yet never publish their return on capital figure as if it were the annual return of a fund. I wonder what we'd learn if they did.

Yeah but I bet the cat can't charge 0.5% of assets under management. THAT's the art of investment management: gather up a shit load of funds and milk them at half a per cent per annum. The skills involved are marketing, lobbying and lying. Humans tend to be far better at these than cats.

It'd be great to start your trading career with $100K of debt. That's some serious motivation :)

Loeb is arguing that whilst black may not be white, it can certainly pass for grey. But let's face it, we live in a regulatory world which let Corzine off scott free, so I don't think HLF will really have much to answer for.

I know what it's like: "Hey, hey, you're a trader - tell me, what stocks should I buy?" --- "Actually I trade futures, not stocks, and.." "Yeah, great, great, tell me, what stock should I buy? What d'you think of Apple right now?" --- "I don't really take a view on shares. I trade...

Thanks for the advice - I'm sure it's well intentioned. But.. were you also saying this at the end of 2008? :) I figure you're an experienced, well connected guy who doesn't trade but advises some serious investors. Therein lies the difference.. you're trying to make a living relatively...

Now that members of the public have found out about how poorly hedge funds have been doing by reading the popular press, we are likely to see huge positive performance from some of the better funds. I am personally at this point putting 100% of my investable cash in systematic trend following...

Because they either: i) are still in the super profitable stage immediately prior to blowing up ii) can't remember the last time(s) they blew up

Templeton=essentially be the Warren Buffett of non US markets, buy and hold with multi decade patience. Discreetly give up US citizenship and move to a Caribbean tax haven rather than fart on all day about how the rich should pay more tax Niederhoffer=write put options until your fund blows...