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I agree with you on this. However, I wouldn't ignore the Bell curve. Why? Because that's where the 90% are residing. There's a lot of information in a Bell curve if you pull it apart. Crowd mentality - and the crowd is usually wrong.

There's always something to be learned from conversations like this. The most important parts are the questions that are left unanswered on both sides. Stuff that keeps physicists and traders up at night!

I won't answer for Amahrix but I will say this. The topic is very important. He's an intelligent person who's given a lot of thought to the subject. It's worth challenging his opinion.

The data stream that the market produces every day is just that: DATA. How it's generated is a different subject. It may be relevant. Then again it may not be relevant. You know NOTHING about that data until it's tested.

What is physics about? It's about measurement. What is science? Science is two things: discovery and evidence. How is the market any different? "Social science" is a lot of psychobabble. Sure, if you take that approach, you may as well assume that the market is random. You're not going...

If all that is true, how do funds like Renaissance achieve success? Why does Jim Simons hire scientists and not a bunch of monkeys throwing darts at a board? The scientific method applies to anything that's testable, including the market. Regardless how you perform backtesting, it is...

I think you're avoiding the mathematics like the plague. Survival and hedges are structured strategies. Strategies have shape, form and consist of numbers. Repeatable numbers are what constitutes prediction. If you have the shape, form and numbers that are repeatable, you have prediction...

The article reinforces the point. Statistical arbitrage relies on mean reversion to predict certain outcomes. That's structured data. Structured anything is not random. It has structure. Predictions can be made on repeatable structures.

Here's a recent statement by Jim Simons (Renaissance Technologies): "Initially, the company was a fundamental investor. “Then it occurred to me that maybe price series were not random, completely,” said Simons who, with his wife Marilyn, is a major donor to the basic sciences. “There should be...

If this were true, then their results would be random as well. And they're not. Wittgenstein's ruler doesn't apply here because the ruler and the table are fixed, defined objects. Market data is dynamic. But in either case, the "ruler" can be anything from the size of a pin to a yard stick...

The point is that, regardless whether they're day traders or hedge fund managers, if they fall within the 10% who are successful, then they have an edge. The edge can only be found in the data. If it's found in the data and it's repeatable, then it's not random.

Ok, fine. But then the fund manager must be counted in the same statistic that I mentioned above: "90% of all day traders lose money" - so now we say "90% of all traders lose money". The 50/50 proposition has no basis.

Wait a minute. Your initial post was about day traders, not fund managers. Although some of the scenario might apply, the 50/50 proposition you just made has no basis in fact. It's a hypothetical. And that would be a fine problem to solve if it were the question. But it isn't. Your...

That doesn't make much sense. Survival is a strategy. If you're alone on a desert island and all you had to eat were coconuts, then your survival strategy was to eat coconuts. Whatever Soros et al are doing has a plan behind it. And that's a strategy.

If they understand risk, then they have a methodology to do that. Survival is a tactic, not an imaginary proposition. We don't know their method. But TA could very well be part of it - or all of it. We don't know.

This paper describes an experiment which demonstrates that the random walk hypothesis is probably wrong. So what did they really prove? They proved that examining the data from different perspectives can reveal an "edge". Edges exist. But why only 10% find it? LINK...

Algorithms do not necessarily eliminate technical analysis. Algorithms can be built around TA as well. If algorithms are the major factor in the market, then everyone should learn how to code and write algorithms. Algorithms can be losers as well -...

Consider this statement: "90% of all day traders lose money". Of course, that implies that 10% do make money. Assuming the statement is true over any 10 year period, that's not random. Can we say that in the future 90% of all day traders will lose money? Probably yes based on the historical...

https://www.movavi.com/ You could also use Ninjatrader Market Replay. I journal with Movavi but the size of the files adds up fast so I only retain important recordings in the cloud. Market replay is always available and doesn't clog up your computer.

Let me ask you this: If your strategy relied on a 10% drawdown maximum and you achieved the 10% profit trading 2 contracts, what happens when you get funded? How do you adjust your strategy to fit the new rules? Reduce your contracts? You only traded 2. Try to change your drawdown to fit...