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If it can reach a certain degree of accuracy, I figure range information itself will be useful. By combining it with certain principles--such as support/resistance, microstructure patterns, crowd psychology etc--perhaps tradable signals will arise. For example, if the range estimate for...

But if I can forecast the volatility *range* of a stock for a given time interval, can't I use that information as a filter to identify trades on the stock directly?

Come up with a three heads scenario where you don't think it'll win. I'll give you the betting sequence.

You still double your initial stake in the TTHHH scenario if you start the third toss with only $25. Third toss you bet 25 and double your money to 50 if it's heads. Fourth toss you bet 50 and double your money to 100 if it's heads. Fifth toss you double your money to 200 if it's heads...

By coincidence I was watching a lecture on introductory game theory last night where the topic was sequential games. One method of finding the optimum strategy was called Rollback. This is where you start with the payoffs and work your way backwards through the branches. For this method...

This is a good place to start: http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Exchanges-Market-Microstructure-Practitioners/dp/0195144708 Some information is out of date but the principles are still valid.

Yeah, always betting $37.50 to start and going from there is what I arrived at as well. I came to the solution through this reasoning--What's the minimum amount I need to guarantee $200 if there's a winning sequence from these scenarios: two heads and one flip left $100 two heads and two...

Thank you for your thoughtful replies. I apologize for my slow response as I had to think about what I'm actually trying to accomplish. What I'm trying to do is move from feeling and eyeballing, which is what I do with discretionary trading, to trying to build models for algorithmic...

Fair enough. By average, I mean that, if I work at it, I can understand the math behind all the popular tools of quant trading. Covariance, expected values, stochastic processes, autoregression, etc. Most of it isn't that complicated. The symbology just looks intimidating, but once you...

So I visited www.wilmott.com, expecting more rigorous, empirical discussions on trading. To my disappointment, I got exactly that. Most of it went over my head. I understood what they were talking about at a high-level, but the details baffled me. I'm not innumerate, but my math skills are...

I moved from 30mins to 60mins a few months ago to compensate for the increase in noise and decrease in volatility. My three timeframes are now 60, 240, and daily.

For the faster money I agree. But there's at least one 3-point grinder in the afternoon. Granted--it's crappy having to hold a trade as it meanders its way to the next level across an hour or more, but it's what we're working with now.

In my experience, NQ breakouts on long timeframes (30 min or higher) combined with S&R analysis is easier than scalping. It's a more orderly instrument. My view is scalping NQ would leave a lot of money on the table with disproportionate risk.

Where are all the regulars? Have they formed their own subcult in IRC?

Big Swinging Dick local. Hugely capitalized. He has other locals working for him so even if he's selling, he may be doing so to his own guys who are going long for him.

LOL @ Monday morning quarterbacks. How many of these clowns have the balls to describe their entire trade?

That was a kick in the balls.

I've become pretty proficient at reading intraday S&R levels on the 5-min chart. I can capture the 2-point space in between them pretty reliably. And when there's a surge in the tape, I can hold on for slightly larger winners. What I'm wondering is: is there any merit to the idea of going...

Wave, What's your position?

Thanks, Max. I'll check out.