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"He has made 11 profitable informative transactions out of 13 total transactions, earning an 85% profitable transaction rate and a +64.5% insider average return per transaction." I highly doubt that this ONE individual knew about the SNB action in any sort of prescient manner. Frankly...

@garachen had a good post about this, which i'm too lazy to find now. something about "what service/value is your strategy providing to the market?"

Eesh good luck that sounds awful

you can't mention lawyers and hearing without giving us the good stuff.. homicide? racketeering? what's the scoop?

So maybe I'm missing something but FXCM certainly received a lifeline of $200mm (give or take) from Leucadia as they were in some kind of breach of their cap requirements. I feel like I'm causing the thread to go off the rails, so pardon me, back to tryin' to pick tops and bottoms..

Risk model change not equal to incorporate fatter tails per se.

I understand they write off the accounts, but they still experienced a $220mm loss with their counterparties. I do wish FXCM well, seeing as they're probably the only STP US broker remaining who won't mess with client orders, but really am more curious than anything about how their risk model...

Ostensibly though, if margin was 1:1, no client balances would have turned negative. I know that's taking it to the logical extreme.. Out of curiosity though, assuming we'll see another black swan at some point, what can FXCM do risk-wise on these types of move in, say, the euro? Suppose in...

Take a left?

Interesting idea to remove those currencies with caps, floors, etc., however is there truly any way FXCM can protect itself against outsized moves in the remaining currencies? Buying otm options? Swaps with banks? Truly curious..

I'd be interested in hearing more about your thoughts re: volatility if you care to elaborate i.e., how you view a scenario such as realized vol > expected vol, how it might impact your trading, how you might tweak, etc.

Outside of "is the resultant P&L positive," what metric(s) matter most to you?

At what point do you think you'll go full time? I know you have commitments, but what will you need to achieve performance wise to jump in?

Solid week though!

Can you elaborate on "volatility normalized?"

Teddy said, "It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who...

Oh Jesus here we go. Surf please don't ruin this thread. It's one of few decent threads left.

"Have to finish early tomorrow have stupid work BS meeting to attend and probably just sit there doing jack shit." Preach!

such a great journal, thanks for sharing

Got it, thanks.