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That really sounds very close to what I'd like to do. It seems like you've pretty much achieved the results I want. If you could explain more about your "3D surface plot" approach, that would be great. Or if there are any books you'd recommend... Thanks again, dottom, your contribution...

You must be reading my mind. :D Ideally I'd like to have a 70% win percentage - it fits my personality (not sure what that's saying about me, but that's the way it goes!). I don't mind the 1:1 risk/reward, either, as long as I'm winning that often. My initial thoughts were to try to achieve...

Thanks, that's what I'm hoping to do! One indicator would be about right; I'm a strong believer in the power of simplicity. Thanks again!

Great point, I agree, and I have tried to do some of that analysis. I have been pretty good intuitively and with charts - I have made money on about 70% of my trades (there haven't been that many since they were all longer term positions). But I had no trade management plan whatsoever. I have...

My problem in the past has been, my puke point is all the way down to zero! HA HA! I have had a great stomach for sitting through a losing position - sometimes for 6 months (I was trading long-term straddles) - while rationalizing that why, of course, it will turn around. In doing some...

Thanks for taking the time to write such a comprehensive entry. In terms of experience level - you're both right and wrong. :) I've been trading on and off since 1993 in the futures markets, mostly silver and soybeans. Have pretty much gone through the "evolution" Charlie Wright describes in...

Thanks for clarifying. I understand much more clearly now.

DB - sounds like the method is doing great for you - just not clear on how you're actually measuring probability. Let's say you're using Fib retracements. You see a trend developing - market goes from 880 to 900, MACD is crossed over, volume is looking decent. Pullback begins to occur - it...

I'm interested in what kind of "mental strategy" you're using to elicit a probability for a trade. Do you run through a sequence - even somewhat unconsciously - "OK, the MACD has crossed over. Could be time to take a trade. Where's the support and resistance? OK, looks like it's going to make a...

OK - everything you've said has made a lot of sense so far; this is a little fuzzy for me, though. It seems we're now adding in numerous other factors that need to be thought about, which may or may not be quantifiable with a "probability" number. I'd like to avoid any kind of subjectivity if...

Great, gracias. 1. Would the probability come purely from backtesting? (i.e., "If these conditions were met, and I entered at X and took profit or loss at Y, backtesting shows I would be profitable 57% of the time?") 2. Good to know. I was planning on going back and doing EVERY year of the...

1. Agreed. The indicator is only there to suggest conditions may be there for a POSSIBLE trade. 2. Yes, I plan to be more meticulous than Felix Unger going through bars. (For an intraday system, how much history do you suggest?) 3. I've always thought it important to look at multiple time...

I totally hear ya. By the time I'm ready to fire away, I'd like to have everything distilled as simply and elegantly as you both do. I think if I end up with a 12-filter system that trades by the light of the 3rd phase of Jupiter, but only at 11:47 and 3:13, I'm screwed! :D

You seem to be doing something similar to what my general goal is, in terms of trading within a limited time window and making about 5 trades a day (on 2-minute charts). Are you a discretionary trader, strategy trader...?

Let's continue from the original question. Maybe specify my parameters a little more. The goal would be to create, backtest and refine a volatility strategy for daytrading the ES, using 5 minute bars. System would ideally trade less than 5 times a day, within a limited time period. Goal...

I am hearing you loud and clear. Will check out your "Blown Out" thread and glean what I can about trade management and money management, hopefully it'll give me some food for thought when it comes to building that part of the system. Thanks a bunch for your responses.

Thanks for all the excellent responses, they're really helpful, and are confirming what I've been thinking all along - KISS, or maybe even KIRRSS - 'Keep It REALLY REALLY Simple.' TNT - I am planning to build a non-discretionary volatility-based strategy that may/may not be automated...

Thank you very much for the feedback. I will definitely factor those in. EC - If you can PM me some parameters for looking at pivot points, that would be great. Hybrid - Regarding money management, can you recommend any great books on the subject? I've skimmed some of Ralph Vince's stuff...

Thanks - not looking for a "one size fits all" answer, just a general framework to start with. So far I like what I hear! Please, keep the input coming, it's very helpful.

If you were to start today building a system to daytrade the ES - let's say, you wanted to trade 5-minute bars, make between 5-10 trades per day, just to get the discussion started - how many indicators would you need to use? In your opinion, do the best systems use 1, 2, or 3 indicators...more...