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I'm learning this stuff so this is a genuine question not meaning to challenge: I read everywhere else that having too many parameters tends to lead to over-fitting models. How would you reconcile your theory with that?

Here's a blog post I ran into today: http://seekingalpha.com/article/124654-contango-quickly-disappearing-backwardation-and-uso-profits-next It didn't offer much explanation to support the idea, but it makes some sense at lease to this newb. :) What do you guys think? Is the contango...

Thanks for the comments, guys.

Hi all, I'm new to futures, and have been watching CL for a couple of months. I've been reading about this "super contango" market we seem to be in right now, and the various strategies people use to profit from it. One thing I haven't been able to find the answer for is, however, why? Or...