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    "rates pushing prices down..."

    I've always wanted to ask about this, but it comes down to quibbling over language so it never seemed thread-worthy. Still, I can't resist. Everyday I hear journalists and pundits talking about yields, making statements like "yields are rallying today, causing prices to drop." Just now, I heard...
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    Cost of Vega Convexity/no arb criterium for wings

    I'm wondering if verticals with long strike at 15 deltas, ratioed to be neutral of gamma, theta, and vega while giving you maximum vomma, meet your criteria. I always wonder how to manage this sort of trade. It won't stay neutral for very long. What if volatility doesn't change as fast as price...
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    Building vega hedges

    Thank you, to both of the above contributors. Magic and Guru. Helpful insight. A question on some of the Guru's points: Can you list an example of a bullish setup not worth trading? Assuming the outlook is bullish, what sorts of setups would you avoid? I'd like to know what sort of creative...
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    Building vega hedges

    Could anyone suggest a spread of some kind that acts like the Vix, a trade that is sensitive to volatility alone? My main play is ATM bull put spreads on the SPX coupled with OTM bull calls spread on the Vix futures, financed for half the credit of the bull put. How to optimize this trade is a...
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    I am suspicious of this rally

    Go long what? cyclical sector stocks, energy, infrastructure, industrials? Or just SPX? Or are the Fang stocks destined to come back as a value play, having recently lost valuation?
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    Achieving Trader Tax Status

    Thank you. Yes, what I was suggesting is clearly just checking off boxes. And the whole matter is largely subjective rather than neatly stipulated in the tax code, which means the trading strategy has to be reasonable. Frequently buying out of the money calls on the Vix as an inexpensive way to...
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    Achieving Trader Tax Status

    Thank you for the input. MTM election does strike me as a pretty nice. The wash sale loss rule has cost me $10s of thousands in extra taxes: I dutifully cut my losses and got right back in on the same 1 or 2 pet tickers only to realize later that those losses weren't subtracted from my...
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    Achieving Trader Tax Status

    I'm looking into exactly what it takes to achieve the exalted trader status and unlock the associated tax benefits. If I understand Robert Green and other experts correctly, trader status requires the following: 1) Execute 4 or more trades per day, holding each position for no more than a...
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    Forecasting the Yield Curve

    Thank you, Bone, for the viewpoint. Would you be willing to elaborate a little further? How does the short term interest rate curve relate to the greater yield curve, including the NOB, FYT, and BOB spreads (if that is indeed your hypothesis)? I am interested in curvature trading with the GE...
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    Forecasting the Yield Curve

    Would anyone like to discuss strategies for forming an outlook on the near-term future of the yield curve? There is so much good information on how to set up futures spreads and butterflies to act on a view about where yields are going relative to one another, and even more on the predictive use...
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    USO options

    IB was very certain it would be impossible to place any initiating orders. Only liquidating orders would be accepted. FSU, if you can expend new capital on USO1 options, would be please buy mine off of me at a fair price? Because the market in these options seems unregulated. As soon as options...
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    USO options

    I'm confused why this isn't being discussed more. I am trying to get through to my broker IB to figure out what recourse is left for USO1 option holders. I have lived through many a reverse split, but it's never been like this! In the past, you just had fewer options and the strike was adjusted...
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    USO options

    Option holders will have .125 the number of options they had before the split, is that right? Do the strike prices of options bought before the split remain the same? Or do the number of contracts held remain the same but the strike moves up 8X?
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    Best trading entity for California

    Information abounds on all the pros and cons of S corp, LLC, C corp, etc. Not sure how to decide. If a Californian trader (or one from another high tax state) profits in short-term capital gains, which entity is best to reduce the tax burden? Is there a thread or guide online? Is there a...
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    Futures Options IV Screener

    There are IV Percentile screeners for stocks, but I can't find one for futures options. Is there a tool for screening the IV of all the futures contracts for their IV levels within a year?
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    Hedging short term bonds

    I inadvertently posted the same thread twice. I tried to delete my second posting but didn’t see the option for doing so. Perhaps because it was the initial thread itself.
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    Hedging short term bonds

    Now that rates are a bit higher, bonds are beginning to look like an investment to consider. Hedging a bond purchase with short the equivalent futures contract makes some sense to me (e. g. buying a 2-year note and shorting the ZT). But what futures contract could be used to hedge notes...
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    What drives Eurodollar prices?

    The more I observe this market the more baffled I am by it. Today for instance, the Fed hiked by 25 bps and talked about raising three more times between now and 2020. That should send the fed rate to 3.25%, and 3-month USD LIBOR should be at least 3.5%. That should have the December...
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    What drives Eurodollar prices?

    That snail is on steroids. Surprisingly volatile market where it's easy to make or lose big, in my experience--like any market. I'm intrigued by it because the terms in the strip are highly correlated but move by different magnitudes. Back months tend to move a bit more than front ones...
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    What drives Eurodollar prices?

    I take your point, but on what basis are traders buying or selling? Is it only technical (trend, mean-reversion, etc.), or does the GE move because of views on the LIBOR at the time of future expiry, or for other fundamental reasons? I'm really curious what, besides technicals, drives this market.
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