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Not disputing that idea. Myself, I just watch the short-term time frames so I detect trends in the very early stages whichever way it goes. I don't really make directional bets at points like this... and while I wouldn't be the tiniest bit surprised to see a rally, I'm just more aware of the...

Could be. I wouldn't be surprised to see another jam into the close, or a sell-off... given that we are right at resistance on the daily chart. I called it this morning and said that we could hit 1062 to 1063 as resistance on the opposite daily uptrend line and that is exactly what happened...

NO. The market is overextended, and could very easily pull back. It could also spike higher for a bit longer. Right now is a terrible time to be getting in, because it's very uncertain what is going to happen. Wait for a setup where the odds are in your favor.

jr07, One other thing. It is in no way an exaggeration when I tell you that it will take you many thousands of hours to become a successful trader. I probably put in around 5000 hours of work before I started to consider myself reasonably confident and knowledgeable about the market. That...

Way too many bullish threads on this forum, while bears are screaming in pain. I smell some short-term capitulation. Too early at this point to call a short-term top with any certainty though... could still run for a few points, we'll have to see some reversal patterns on the hourly charts...

During an uptrend, yes. And during a downtrend, only short or in cash.

No problems... not trying to be a jerk, but it's important to get through to you. Trading is an addiction for some people, because it SEEMS so easy. If you have the patience to walk away right now and watch all the moves that are going to happen for the next year without actually putting...

Rule #1: If you're posting questions like this on ET, STOP TRADING REAL MONEY. YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING, AND YOUR CHANCES OF SUCCESS ARE PRECISELY ZERO AT THIS POINT. Rule #2: Work out a system, trade that system on a sim for a while. A LONG while. I traded sim at one point for...

All of the above, including more leverage. Daytrading is the hardest form of trading, and the most lucrative. Very few people can do it well.

Except that there is no actual glory in it. Every experienced trader knows that making a call on a top or a bottom after it has extended the opposite way is nothing but a guess, and that only a green trader would even try it or think that it means something if he's right. Experienced traders...

Incidentally, the topic of this thread and a few other bullish threads on this site is a sign that we are getting a little overextended. Be careful about going long here for more than a quick scalp. It's seriously incredible how many people are actually trying to go fully long right now as...

It's quite amazing how many bad traders actually get paid to manage other people's money.

Your problem is that you are trading off of other people's opinions. This implies that you don't have faith in your own analysis, which means you don't have confidence in whatever system you are using. THAT is the core of your problem. If you did have confidence in your own ability to decide...

Yep. It doesn't mean that the top is in right now though. But it does mean that it's time to be a bit more cautious.

Yes. And for me, it's easy before the fact too. If you check my posting history, I have been warning about this consistently since S&P 1000. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2570328#post2570328 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2569696#post2569696...

Actually it's pretty simple: 1. 90% of traders fail. This means that 90% of traders are selling when they should be buying, and buying when they should be selling. 2. ET is representative of an average cross-section of traders. 3. Therefore, it is normal to assume that whenever you see...

The past couple of week all I have seen is bear threads, and sure enough the market has rallied. With the emergence of some buy threads, it's time to be a bit more cautious now. That doesn't mean we can run for another few points though. ET is such an awesome contrary indicator, you gotta love it.

It never ceases to amaze me how many times the same stuff happens again, and again, and again, and again... :)

Well, looks like the daily jam session is in full force... 1058 as I type this. If you draw a trendline through the last 2 major swing highs on the daily chart, you will find some resistance at 1062 to 1063. Of course, sometimes price overshoots the opposite trendline. I see no pattern yet...

870 is a long way off. Check out all the trendlines that would have to be broken for that to happen. While we are right at the top of a recent uptrend channel and may be due for a pullback, I don't see any technical reason why 870 would be considered a target at this point. Keep that in mind if...