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Here is an updated chart, we are certainly due for a bounce. Only the brave need apply. This chart shows the move up from $450.00 to the high, looks like we retraced roughly 61.80% on the fibonacci line. The words recession, deflation, housing crash, etc. don't bode well long term. Looking at...

Agreed. I don't really care if Mr Taleb is a good or bad human being. He brings up some interesting issues with regards to fat tails, the bell curve and its usefulness, distributions, etc. For me the idea that we don't have absolute certainty relative to risk is key; how do you price it then...

More ammo for you option traders!! http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/GIF.pdf Hope I don't get sued for this? :( How come anytime someone says delta, I wanna take a nap? :p

TaoWave wrote: Not suprising..Taleb is a bitter frustrated quant with a ridiculous ego...He may have done well for a while,but he probably got smoked the last 5 years if he played the equity markets..He buys the tails and always long vol,and its not sprising he went the way of the dinosaur as...

Not sure what you mean by commodity trading pool. Here is a link http://www.cftc.gov/opa/backgrounder/opacpocta.htm . Futures trading is tough, I would tell you to look at GLD, an exchange traded fund that trades like a stock. A pool could be into anything. Read the posts on ET for futures...

What do you think those guys get paid for their prognostications. If they are wrong they get made fun of by Mr Radigan. Ouch! Where do I sign up? By the way, "the Admiral" (why is he the Admiral?) never said how Joe Schmoe could ride this wave. Is his point about natural gas having only so...

Has anyone noticed gold has been up now for seven straight days, needs to close at or above $615.00 for me to get excited. Possible reversal here. :D

couldn't resist. Gold can't get no respect!! :(

gold up a dollar, oil up a dollar, what's wrong with this picture? :confused:

buy gold

Here is the monthly oil contract going back to the start of the bull run low in 1999. Looks like the first correction was from $34.00 to $20.00 or say $14.00. The one before that was nastier from $23.00 to $2.00. UUGH!! This was over $20.00. This was a brutal decline from 1997, to its low in...

Speaking of talking big time S**T, how does an oil trader interpret this: New York - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez called US President George Bush "the devil" in a speech to the United Nations, making the sign of the cross in a dramatic gesture and accusing him of "talking as if he owned...

Pabst wrote: As market sell orders are auctioning the market lower and setting off sell stops, the computer knows to do nothing other than downtick those stops into corresponding bids. If there's even ONE less bid in the system than the number of sell stops the market will cascade lower until...

Here is a chart that shows the move up from $450 to $730 with fib retracement lines. I think the big picture says we are still correcting along with highly correlated oil. The correction came down and we just passed through 50% retrace. The move from $625 has been almost straight down. The next...

How about Long Term Capital Management, when they sunk in 1998, Warren Buffet offered to buy them out at $250 million. Clearly the fed went out of their way to save them. Maybe Nobel Prize winners should be spared the pain of trading poorly. Got to get me one of them prizes; maybe I could write...

This is surely a brutal decline with a rare 1x 8 decline on the Gann line. Makes me wonder who is behind the curtain. A bounce back to $68.00 would be no big deal.

Somewhere in market wizards there is a quote that says "trading is the only business where all you need is a funded account". So your story is vague to say the least. Making it rich, being self absorbed, and filled with testosterone is one image of the lifestyle, personally I enjoy this image...

Richard Donchian used a breakout system very well and many traders used his idea over the years. I like using the bands for trading and prediction. You can get a good idea what the bands should be based on past time frame. Eg, gold may show an average 2.5 standard deviation over x days. The...

Hey NazdSpecialist, I would love to see a chart of your fibonaccci projections if you have one handy. I am having a little trouble following your analysis, but it sounds good!

Good call on gold down $15.00 today. Will we see $600.00 again maybe sooner than later. Here is a chart with uso (oil etf) and gld. Seem to be correlated at the moment.