Search results

In terms of the U.S. equity markets, a different question might be "which moving average length has produced alpha and mitigated risk in statistically significant fashion over long sample periods as represented by underlying economic cycle, monetary flows, and equity market trend" ? The 10...

It's productive to diversify across asset classes / stock universes and empirically based, non discretionary strategies. Sometimes there's a dry spell ... - Don't quit your day job - Don't use leverage - Open a Roth IRA - Sometimes money is made by sitting in cash - Don't be a hostage to the...

Trend following using price cross / 10 period moving average, monthly basis has been somewhat of a gold standard. Could be that it tracks the length of the economic, monetary, election cycle well. Using it with QQQ or MDY gives exposure to mid cap growth ( mid cap growth has beaten * Berkshire...

MDY. It has outperformed BRK-a over 20+ years ( and over many time frames ) http://tinyurl.com/gluu5tg. Add simple / conventional moving average heuristic * and 220 basis points performance improvement added 1995 - 2015 ( + 13.9% CAGR ) with added risk reduction. *...

In the late 90's, my futures account went from 15K to 500K in 3 months ( through the naivete of trading "too many" NYF futures contracts; this before the advent of emini's ). From my experience, if you have made this many $$ so quickly, I would suggest: 1) go to cash 2) take 6 months off...

This is a good primer - Don't quit your day job - Don't use leverage - Open a Roth IRA - Sometimes money is made by sitting in cash - Don't be a hostage to the markets - let the markets, profitability of the U.S. economy work for you

A good way of conceptualizing expected returns is to view returns over rolling 5 ( or even 10 ) year total return periods and within a probabilistic framework. For example, a tactical process has produced > 100% over 5 years over x % of the periods, and between 50% - 99% over x% of the periods...

Historically, long bond price has gained in 3rd quarters ( entries on 1st Monday after July 4th ) of high risk years * . This year, the configuration suggests an entry on Monday July 11, exit on October 3rd. * quantitative price based variable # 2 & #3...

Inflation adjusted, oil / gasoline is at one of the lowest levels in 50 years.

If an investor utilizes an empirically derived, systematically based, risk managed process with a diversification over different asset classes, then news driven, geopolitical events won't affect the long term results ( historically). For example, investing in a blend of small cap value and...

It's all subjective ...

I migrated away from being chained to monitoring price movements, to investing tactically in the long term growth of companies / sectors using ETFs with a couple transactions a year. For the effort, makes about the same return. Frees up time for other pursuits. - Don't quit your day job...

Factors that reduce the amount of information that one needs to process in order to make sound decisions: 1) A repeatable and numerically replicable process whose heuristics aren't subject to "interpretation" 2) investment in asset classes that represent underlying growth of products or...

A decent, two transaction per year strategy has been to use the "Sell in May" tactical factor combined with a risk profile variable / determinant for forward one year return. An equal position of Emerging "small cap" * and an equal position of "U.S. small cap value" ** universe ( exploiting Fama...

Knowing the statistical evidence that leans towards keying investment off of the long term trend of the U.S. equity markets vs. short term ( stocks have risen 60+% and fallen 30+% over long periods ), as they ( the U.S. equity markets ) are representative of stable policy, debt, and currency...

Develop processes that position into the U.S. equities market * over multi month/ yearly time spans and that use quantitative variables that signal on fixed, predetermined dates ( in this case, signaling allocation from equities to cash / bonds and vice versa ). The use of ETFs that represent...

Don't worry about what the "great" investors do. A simple investment in the S&P midcap growth ( MDY ) has beaten BRK-A over many time frames ( "the average investor should just invest in an index" as Buffet suggested )with better diversification. http://tinyurl.com/jjsn7y2...

It takes time for enterprises / companies earnings to be aggregated/assimilated into price and hence a capital appreciation trend. Over the short run, the market is in a process of assimilating all earnings plus exogenous information, hence the randomness of price information / behavior. A well...

- Don't quit your day job - don't use leverage - money is most efficiently compounded over longer term time frames - money is made by sitting on one's hands - many times money is made by sitting in cash - don't be hostage to the markets - open a Roth IRA

Trading individual stocks wrestles with "idiosyncratic stock risk" and sector specific risk. Each stock has it's own price ( trending ) behavior within the market's perception of it's expected earnings and reaction to those earnings. And the sector in which it resides, can be affected by sector...