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sld 1 bund z7 @ 161.49, bot 1 gilt z7 @ 123.87 (reduce size from 2 lot to 1 lot)

week 18/09/2017 EDU1-EDU2: -1500 USD ED M8-M9-M0: +2250 USD Short EUR: -12.5 USD Short EURNOK: +1993 USD Short EURCZK: +653 USD UXY-WN steepener: -1969 USD Short ultra bond: -969 USD Long bund against gilt: +880 GBP, -140 EUR Short bund against ER Z0: -820 EUR ER Z7-Z8-Z9: +1500 EUR Short BA...

sld 1 WN Z7 @ 166.40625. Ultrabond yield is the same it was in the morning and 47 bps looks too tight for WN-UXY now.

Let’s play another round of sucker’s game guessing what the Fed will do. Dotplot will move down but the median for 2017 will still point at a hike because there were just too many hawks to move to the dovish side. For 2017 core PCE will be downgraded big up to 1.4%, probably a lil bit for 2018...

It's a too elusive concept to agree, disagree or come up with own number. What matters is that BoC themselves believe in the number when determining how much they can move. The latest Fed's long-run projections were 2.5-3.5%, so 25bps lower. Economic textbook would probably compare GDP...

This week felt like a declaration that we have now moved away from on-hold to global tightening phase. US CPI, Swedish unemployment, Australian employment, UK CPI/BoE/Vlieghe combo, SNB currency assessment change and whatever caused the higher Eurozone yields on Friday. The Australian 90-day...

week 11/09/2017: EDU1-EDU2: -2250 USD EDM8-EDM9-EDM0: +2625 USD Short EUR: +1188 USD Short EURNOK: -1348 USD Short EURCZK: +426 USD UXY-WN steepener: -2953 USD Long bund vs gilt: -3540 EUR, +6820 GBP Short bund against ER Z0: +480 EUR ER Z7-Z8-Z9: +1500 EUR Short BA M9: +500 CAD Total: ~+5349 USD

rolled 6e u7 -> z7 @ 0.0057, nok u7 -> z7 @ 0.000245

Given the August print it's now quite likely that CPI in the UK will be above the 3% October peak that BoE projected in August (6-2 vote). In June they said it was likely for CPI to rise above 3% (5-3 vote, but with Forbes out the same 6-2), so I guess going above 3% is not sufficient to trigger...

sld 5 BA M9 @ 97.86

Korean won-priced gold is back to around September 2016 level, so the geopolitical factors have roughly offset the better global economic outlook and somewhat better domestic economic fundamentals. I don’t see anything that the US can really do about NK other than live with it. In this scenario...

week 04/09/2017: EDU1-EDU2: 0 EDM8-EDM9-EDM0: 0 UXY-WN steepener: +969 USD Short EURNOK: -2823 USD Short EURCZK: -1536 USD Short 6EZ7: -406 USD Long bund vs gilt: -1240 GBP, +2080 EUR Short bund vs ER Z0: -2235 EUR < i was wrong to assume ecb doing nothing was fully in the price. ER Z7-Z8-Z9: 0...

I have no idea if he is right or not and it would be hard to compete with central bank research. Core is weak, GDP growth from household goods consumption could easily be dumb credit-driven spending, not clear why they should defy the global trend of weak wage growth. On the other hand, labour...

So USDTRY has gone down to 3.40 from 3.85 peak in January. It’s an expensive one to short and shorting a currency that’s gone from 1.75 pre taper tantrum and 2.00 post taper tantrum to 3.40 forces question if there was an overshoot and how much further USDTRY could fall. Given their inflation...

so yesterday I made a claim that eurozone lending to non-financials corporates is contracting year-on-year: Draghi drew a different conclusion in his statement: Now it turns out that we are using different data sets (links below). I've always looked at total loans outstanding statistics...

short 1 6e z7 @ 1.2065

pre-meeting thoughts: services hicp has been stable, but core HICP hasn't exactly firmed in France and Italy, US core is weak, so they will need more evidence that inflation is there indeed. less progress on unemployment front in June-July. NFC credit contracting again yoy. Last minutes showed...

rolled -2 (-4+2) RXU7 -> RXZ7, 165.37, 162.43

bit late with week 28.08.2017: EDU1-EDU2: +750 USD EDM8-EDM9-EDM0: +375 USD Long AUDNZD: +1080 USD (closed) Short EURNOK: +520 USD Short EURCZK: +1761 USD UXY-WN steepener: +1000 USD Long bund vs gilt: +180 EUR, -80 GBP Short bund vs ER Z0: +1290 EUR ER Z7-Z8-Z9: +1500 EUR Total: ~+8927 USD

closed audnzd on spike up. sld 6au7 @ 0.7986 bot 6nu7 @ 0.7187