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rolled +2 UXYZ7 -> UXYH8 @ -0.234375 rolled +5 UXYZ7 -> UXYH8 @ -0.234375 rolled -2 WNZ7 -> WNH8 @ -0.921875

Reflecting on closed trades. ER Z7-Z8-Z9 worked quite well. Entered it on 13/03/2017 @ -4.5 (+22 Z7-Z8 and +26.5 Z8-Z9) with the idea that either ECB prepares to hike in 2018 and scares the markets about 2019 or idea of 2018 hiking dies out with some prospect of 2019 hikes surviving. The latter...

closed ER z7-z8-z9 @ 100.33, 100.26, 99.995 closed 22 ER Z0/ -4 bund Z7 @ 99.69, 162.93 rolled -1 Gilt/ +1 bund from Z7 to H8 @ 125.34 ->124.41, 162.93->162.63

I was surprised about the Friday’s ZAR 1.7% sell-off on rating downgrade. Given its recent underperformance, political turmoil and a Fitch junk downgrade earlier this year, I thought that markets had it priced in. Overall in past four weeks portfolio is down more than 2.5%, with more than 0.5%...

Let’s follow up on Turkish lira. Last look at it in early September coincided with bottom in USDTRY around 3.40 and now it’s climbed again to 3.88. Effective bank funding rate is still at 12% and inflation accelerated from 10.7% headline, 10.1% core and 9.40% services in August to 11.9%...

Yep, but saw no catalyst today except perhaps lagged reaction to yesterday's SEB and Handelsbank CEO comments. Yesterday NOK seems to have overreacted too. NOKSEK moved less than EURNOK on Swedish CPI, so more than 50% pass-through without nok 2y moving and oil relatively stable in those hours...

- 1 IK Z7 @ 139.84 +1 RX Z7 @ 162.92 puzzled by EURNOK going 1.4% up today in addition to yesterday's move up

-2 XT Z7 @ 98.375 +2 UXY z7 @ 133.90625 looking for this to widen from 22 bps to 30 bps.

It’s interesting if this time it’s different for Japanese inflation. It’s been a long time since biz confidence was so high (53 services PMI and 54+ eco outlook) and at the same time there were at least some signs of wage growth. I don’t know if it matters but Chinese PPI is now high, so maybe...

Last week was spectacular with no gains in any positions: > gilt outperformed bund, check > flatter eurodollar durve with less curvature in ED4-ED8-ED12, check > EM currencies beaten, check > NOK is still failing to appreciate despite the oil prices, check > EURCZK, EURUSD, bund swap spread, ER...

Bloomberg lost it. Too much tea leaves reading to guess the new governor is bad for mental health.

out of CO Z7 at 57.90.

long 1 CO Z7 @ 57.78. We're some 60 cents up today on peshmerga fighting rumours and hopefully it will be pushed higher when europe opens. With everyone except Russia and Israel siding against kurds i don't think they'll escalate the situation, but it will take a few days to confirm the...

rolled 3mo USDCZK at -0.16

Interesting timing for such remarks by Powell.

BOT 3 6Z Z7 @ 0.0723

Sigh, Q3 restatement: +9929 USD, not +16304. Entered wrong ED months in PNL sheet instead of: This fly was +750 USD, not ~+7000. My PNL calculation discipline is good enough now so I will stop posting it weekly.

The third quarter is over, so it’s 7.5 months for the topic. The positive thing is that I have been disciplined enough not to a skip single day of watching end of day quotes, calculated portfolio value weekly, managed to keep up with the economic data, news and central bank meetings and overall...

WN Z7 is now going to initial target levels so closing it at 168 was premature and costly, but I am not sure the premise for the down-move is correct. Five trillion of uncollected revenues over 10 years is essentially doubling the budget deficit. Is it right to react to a fairytale plan when...

closed wn z7 short @ 168.