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Under most conditions I agree, which is why I usually don't trade it within two weeks of expiry. But go ahead and go back 3-4 years and show me a single instance where the front month switch was trading at $5.60 two days before expiry. August 2010 came close, and as expected also crashed...

:D Sorry I didn't say anything. Actually, it would've been hard to give a heads up on Friday because I didn't open the position until the last few minutes of trading when the MAR/APR overextended on the EOD convergence move. By this morning's open it had already printed $0.50 of what I...

Thanks. I'll be looking to buy the A/M/J fly if it nears $1.00 over the next couple days. Otherwise I will likely just start scaling into a short May/Jun position once it reaches $1.50

FYI, I have nothing in the front 3 switches as of now. I am long JUN/JUL from $105 this morning, looking for 125. And short JUL/SEP from $160 a week or so ago, looking for 140.

You are correct in your ass-umption. I offset that short spread the next day. [b] In this case, the value of the fly was in both the direct hedge as well as the convergence gains. I've only seen that trade as good twice over the past couple years. But yes, I did really trade...

Actually, THE trade was short the MAR/APR/MAY fly EOD on friday. Much better IMO. As close to a sure thing as you are ever gonna see. Absolutely massive edge into expiration, with almost no risk. Only posting it because it is gone now. I'm not as charitable as you I guess. :D

So you're saying that I shouldn't have shorted the May/Jun cal spread @ 1.20? Crap!!

LOL.. that's funny! Not even close to how it works, but still funny.

Definitely not true for the small retail trader. Also, spreads aren't necessarily 10 cents.

BTW, as a strong independent, I also thought the debate last night was decent. The entire field looked better than it has during the previous months. I thought the GOP was in an unfortunate situation, but now I'm thinking otherwise.

Actually, I believe that is only the case if you consider the national polls which have a significant flaw in them. They generally just gather a popular vote, but the election is all about the electorate. I held a similar opinion to the one you shared until I checked the electorate map...

What position?:confused:

You seemed a little more testy than normal. :D

No, it is akin to a student asking the professor for clarification of a misunderstood statement.

?:confused:

You weren't promised anything. I suggested that I'm looking into some trade parameters that show some promise. Why are you attacking me?

Why are you trying to bust my chops? I wasn't trying to correct him, just asked for some clarification. I think he knew that and he provided the clarification. You are the one making a big deal about it.

Not talking about a pure arb here.

No, trading verticals randomly = no edge. I'm suggesting certain conditions in which there might be a significant statistical edge in short vol on SPX. This suggested the use of a var swap to profit from the conditions. Further analysis lead me to believe that there was more alpha to be...

Exactly, but the point was that they are not traded the same. Vix always represents the forward price. For that reason, they will not serve the purposes of say a short vol 30-day variance swap.