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So america is ruled by its people now? When did this happen?

No no, many people believes this, but it wrong. the way an options works is like this: The VIX is what you have to watch. As soon as you buy an option, the value is immediately subtracted from the VIX, so that when you sell back the option, you'll get (VIX - option price). Now, during the...

Are you assuming that the government and wall street are opponents or something?

I see.

With -1,-1, you lose $2 With -1,1, you break even With 1,-1, you break even With 1,1, you win 2$ The odds are 50/50 in this case. In other words your expected outcome is $0, with you chance of losing $2 being equal to winning $2. No matter how many coin tosses you tried, the expected...

Also, keep in mind slippage and commissions. I said to leave those out of the experiment, just for the sake of all other factors being equal, but they would be there in real life.

I didn't say that: I said that was a <i>theory</i>, but you couldn't say that until you did the experiment.

I hate both candidates for different reasons, but Obama fans especially annoy me. Why? Because they naively believe that Obama is going to change their lives, change the country, put it back on the right track, etc. etc., and all that bulls--t. COMPLETE bulls--it, and they actually buy it...

Those possibilities are equally fun.

Try an experiment. Paper-trade some chart with <i>true</i> randomness, and do it many many times. Ignore slippage and commissions. If you can program, do it by generating random numbers. And then see if, with a large sample, you end up with an expectation of breaking even. You should. If you...

Here's a fun possibility: [1] Obama gets elected [2] Several incompetent bumbling hate groups attempt to have him assassinated [3] The intelligence community lets one succeed [4] Martial law

In the article they call it the "world's biggest easy money scheme", and so it was: you borrow at low rates from Japan, leveraged heavily, and then invest in a higher-yielding something or other elsewhere. A lot of those elsewheres were in Australia, Europe, and US. Now the US rate is going to...

Some evidence against the "obama rally": if you look at intrade.com, their rising odds of an Obama-Biden victory correspond with the stock market going lower.

The market should love a democratic president, because clinton was a democrat and we had a bull market under clinton? Really? It makes perfect sense.

It knows exactly what it's doing. Whether its aims are good for you or me is the question, and my guess would be "no".

I'm so tired of this partisan bullshit. Obama gets elected? You get screwed. McCain gets elected? You get screwed in a different way. If the market rallies, it won't be because Obama or McCain saved it, and it probably won't last long in any case. Neither candidate is coming in on a white...

What's the theory behind the "Obama rally"? Everyone will be so happy from all the "change", or what?

I bet the very SMARTIST people on TV know how to spell "smartest".

I believe it's the Yen carry trade, still unwinding.

I know, it was more or less pointless of me to point that out.