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I completely agree that history (across only 11 months in this case) may not be repeated in future, and expect that as market conditions inevitably change I may need to revisit my methodology. I backtest 1000 trading sessions daily, so am comfortable with performance through Covid, but not...

The Nasdaq short Call Spread (#312) closed earlier today in profit. Trade date: 17 November 2022 Security: NQ Price at opening: 11,752.00 Structure: OtM Call Credit Spread Expiry date: 23 November 2022 Strikes: 12020 / 12080 Opening Spread: 13.75 Close date: 21 November 2022 Trade duration: 4...

This is not my actual equity curve, but as the journal has progressed I have accumulated sufficient trades to refine a statistically more-reliable sample for calculation of position size using Kelly Criterion. Rebasing my actual historic trading performance per the current understanding of...

Short directional position on oil filled late yesterday, and closing orders filled early today. Trade date: 17 November 2022 Security: CL Price at opening: 83.43 Structure: OtM Call Credit Spread Expiry date: 25 November 2022 Strikes: 85.25 / 86.25 Opening Spread: 0.21 Close date: 18 November...

Added a couple of trades yesterday and today to take advantage of any fall in price and/or rise in vol. Trade date: 16 November 2022 Security: VIX Price at opening: 24.4 Structure: OtM Put Credit Spread Expiry date: 23 November 2022 Strikes: 23 / 24 Opening Spread: 0.32 Trade date: 17 November...

Long signal on oil at close yesterday so opened a put spread. Trade date: 15 November 2022 Security: CL Price at opening: 84.31 Structure: OtM Put Credit Spread Expiry date: 18 November 2022 Strikes: 81 / 81.75 Opening Spread: 0.18

I realised that one piece of my response to @trade4succes wasn't put particularly well and needs unpacking a bit as the directional swing trades can employ different strategies/structures. The OtM Credit and Debit spreads are more dependent on theta decay, and less dependent on the IV falling...

The jump across the board today (c.5%) caused closing orders to fill in profit for RUT & NQ trades (#300) and ES (#303) which were all opened yesterday. Trade date: 09 November 2022 Security: RUT Price at opening: 1,796.0 Structure: ItM/AtM Call Debit Spread Expiry date: 16 November 2022...

The approach I was using (mainly buying and selling strangles and straddles) exposed me to directional risk, which required delta hedging, which I couldn't achieve at sufficient cost that there was still a reasonable net profit to be derived.

Closing orders filled for the fly (#294) opened on Tuesday, closed in profit. Trade date: 08 November 2022 Security: NQ Price at opening: 11,077.1 Implied Vol 43.8% Direction: Put Expiry date: 11 November 2022 Strikes: 10725 / 11075 / 11425 Structure: 1 / 2 / 1 Opening Spread: 95.00 Close date...

ES opened at >3830 with the spread at c.45. Despite having a long signal, with little downside to doing so, I waited a few hours and closed with ES c.3780 :) Trade date: 03 November 2022 Security: ES Price at opening: 3,738.0 Structure: AtM/OtM Call Credit Spread Expiry date: 09 November 2022...

Thanks for that. I broadly agree and would respond to a couple of points, thus: I also read this. The difficulty (for me) is in monetising it. I spent time, effort and money trying to profitably sell excess IV and hedge delta without success and look forward to hearing how you manage this...

Turned around Russell 2000 and added Nasdaq long directional positions. Trade date: 09 November 2022 Security: RUT Price at opening: 1,796.0 Structure: ItM/AtM Call Debit Spread Expiry date: 16 November 2022 Strikes: 1760 / 1795 Opening Spread: 19.59 Trade date: 09 November 2022 Security: NQ...

Unusual situation for me today. I want to turn around short directional trades (#294). The ES position expires today. At c.45 it has only 5 points downside if ES rallies. If ES falls, there is potential upside in the trade. Out of character for me but I'm watching the intraday chart...

Good question @trade4succes The answer is not binary. I looked at volatility in some detail some time ago and couldn't find a bankable edge that I could exploit from trading volatility alone (*). My directional calls generally seem to be pretty good - although not so much this week! My...

US indices have risen slightly since Thursday so the outstanding positions are underwater, but I don't have a strong conviction to close. And saw a chance to profit from NQ with a fly to partially offset expected losses with this: Trade date: 08 November 2022 Security: NQ Price at opening...

It was a fairly lively opening, with this moving from profit into loss before closing orders filled in profit earlier in the session, after opening yesterday. Trade date: 03 November 2022 Security: NQ Price at opening: 10,789.0 Structure: OtM Call Credit Spread Expiry date: 09 November 2022...

Directional swing trade orders filled earlier today. Trade date: 03 November 2022 Security: ES Price at opening: 3,738.0 Structure: AtM/OtM Call Credit Spread Expiry date: 09 November 2022 Strikes: 3735 / 3785 Opening Spread: 21.00 Trade date: 03 November 2022 Security: NQ Price at opening...

I use Kelley, calculated on actual trades so VaR% changes dynamically per performance. Currently, its ranging from 0.8% to 18% for different strategies/structures. I don't trust the 18% - particularly when I'm opening positions with similar exposure (e.g. short ES, AND RUT) so will limit...

Unsurprisingly, Fed increased interest rates yesterday, which predictably pushed equity markets down. My short position on S&P500 (#288) closed in profit. Trade date: 31 October 2022 Security: ES Price at opening: 3,884.0 Structure: AtM/OtM Call Credit Spread Expiry date: 04 November 2022...