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The spread in Soybeans hammered through my stoploss, and I was unfortunately tied up all day yesterday (bad timing indeed). However I got out at the night session now: Sold 2 Nov 08, Bought 2 Nov 07 ZS Soybeans @ -15 1/2 - CLOSED - LOSS -29 1/2 which is 2.950 usd.

I'm definitely not the man to talk about commodities brokers, I think Aaron Trading is another name. If you create a thread in the brokers section I'm sure you'd get some knowledgable answers.

That's great kahai, congratulations! Yes, one can wonder whether wheat is totally cornered or if it's crowd psychology. Looking at Jul 08 vs Dec 07 for instance is totally crazy. There's almost 110 in between March and May 08! I'm having a hard time imagining such a spread through winter. I'm...

Regarding the spread in NG; I now got my intraday spread charts with IB working again, and I see that the market traded even lower that -0.900 before the start of the regular NYMEX session. So it wasn't a "lucky" fill as such.

Kahai, keep in mind that the Chicago wheat is to a large premium over Kansas wheat this time around - which is highly unusual. I'm actually quite cautious over grains/soybeans as the wheat action in the last month or so is bringing a lot of normal market wisdom out of sync. Just some friendly...

I wish my intraday charting was working, as I'd like to be looking at that whilst explaining the rationale. First of all, I had the entry on the Nov/Dec NG spread pegged for Oct 10th, so this is just way earlier than intended. However, I've been looking at the NG spreads for a good while now...

I'd say Jake Bernstein is stay away. When I was a complete newbie I bought a couple of his books and came away fairly impressed. The important word here is newbie. In retrospect it was a waste of time and money. Trading is not as easy as he's making it out to be - there's no holy grail or...

Late yesterday I got filled on a limit order: Bought 1 Nov 07, Sold 1 Dec 07 NG Natural Gas @ -0.904 My limit order was at -0.900, so I thank IB for those extra 40 usd. The IB spread charting isn't working so well right now, but I have a feeling this was an extremely lucky fill. I had left...

I've been a bit busy the last two days, but of course noticed how the NG spread totally tanked right after I added the second contract. Yesterday I sold one contract at 0.950, and I just sold the other at 0.970 making it an average of 0.960. Sold 2 Nov, Bought 2 Oct NG Natural Gas @ 0.960...

Today I've added one more contract to the Nov / Oct NG Natural Gas spread. The new contract was added at 1.000, and with the previous one from 0.970 I'm updating the entry to show: Long 2 Nov, Short 2 Oct NG Natural Gas @ 0.985 I've been lurking under 0.900 to add for a week now, but am...

I've done a few weeks of 1-lot scalping the FESX-contract, and 60% is not very hard to achieve, even over 1000 trades. Winrate is tied directly to your entry-/exit-mechanism, and since scalping is so frequent you take 1-2 tick profits without the fear to add if the position goes slightly against...

A very interesting topic. There are two kinds of profit targets though: Per trade, and per day. I'd be very interested to see this thread blossoming, but I am unable to contribute as I'm not a scalper.

I haven't increased the capital and just use initial capital and profits until the end of this journey. The initial capital was only about 15.000 usd (if you look at the first post I made, 1.500 per spread - and I have ten portions of capital) and the return is now 130% including open profits...

POSITION SIZING I calculate the factor EQT, which is the required capital per contract: Margin = Maint. Margin Requirement (from exchange websites) Range = Avg. MFE - Avg. MAE Avg MAE is a negative number, so - and - becomes +. This is calculated as shown under PT and SL. EQT =...

STOP LOSS / TIMESTOP Initial SL = (Avg. Maximum Adverse Excursion) * 3 The Avg. MAE is again based upon 20 years of historical data, with years that have constantly been profitable left out. So if 5 out of 20 years have been in the black all the time, you take the max drawdown of the other...

I promised to write a bit more about the system I'm working on, so I thought I'd start off at the probably least likely place :) : PROFIT TARGETS PT = (Avg. historical Net Profit) + (Avg. historical Maximum Favourable Excursion) Based upon 20 years of data if possible, or less if that's...

Status update as of August 31st The close for the spread in Soybean was a bit lower than expected - it traded higher all of Friday. It was however significantly lower during the peak in Wheat and Soybeans earlier this week, so I guess it's ok - but I sure could have gotten a much better...

Wow, this was quick. The Corn spread from last week reached my profit target at 49 1/2, so I'm already out of it!! Sold 2 Dec 08, Bought 2 Dec 07 ZC Corn @ 49 1/2 - CLOSED - PROFIT 7 3/4 which is 775 usd.

Long 2 Nov 08, Short 2 Nov ZS Soybeans @ 14 I had this pegged for entry in a few weeks, but find little downside and think I got in at a good price with my limitorder. Looking to hold for close to two months.

I'm glad you asked that excellent question :) EDIT: As you can see from below, my criterias were quite subjective. I started my journey into seasonal commodities trading knowing nothing about the floor traders on the exchanges, the dynamics of the various markets or how various commercials...