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I registered at this site almost 6 months ago, my registration is expiring and I will not renew it, so you will not be able to try my volatile system :). I can't trade properly there, my results with my real accounts for the same period were much better and less volatile. For your information -...

This is a huge topic and I haven't had luck to really discuss it with anybody who understands my point of view. But still I'll try to explain it: If you want to preserve your wealth, you have no choice but to hold something. It could be dollars, euros, gold, silver, stocks etc. The prices of...

It might seem unrealistic, but it is true. If the price follows a random walk, the probability of an up movement to x is equal to a probability of a down movement to 1/x. Ok, now think about this example: I offer you a game, in which we flip a fair coin. You pay me some amount of money to...

You focus on only one possible outcome - eur/usd only falls and stays at some level. You draw the conclusion that the system would lose. But you calculate the losses in dollars. And you have errors in the calculations. This is how they should be: 1. Start at eur/usd =1, we buy 500 euros and 500...

1. If you have dollars in your pocket, you are long usd/eur. If you have euros in the pocket, you are long eur/usd. You can hold them simultaneously. So the answer is yes. 2. 1/(eur/usd) = usd/eur by definition. Therefore forex traders don't need quotes for usd/eur, eur/usd is enough. Central...

5) Example II I have used historical daily closing prices for gold and silver, downloaded from http://www.lbma.org.uk/index.php. We assume that we have $2000 on 1st of April 1968 and we are wondering how to invest them – in gold or in silver. I compare two portfolios, which follow two...

1) Introduction The system described in the article “A system for riskless long-term profits in efficient markets” was simplified as much as possible in order to be as understandable as possible. The examples were theoretical and the price movements were simulated using Excel. Here I...

IMHO, your newly created formulas for calculating expected values should be in the schoolbooks. You calculate expected values for trading dollars by multiplying logarithms of prices, instead of the prices themselves. Can you answer why? When you buy eur/usd and usd/eur, what do you expect to...

I post it here, because there was interest about my previous article on a similar topic. I didn't plan to write this article soon, but I was motivated by the other topic. I just finished it, so there might be some minor mistakes. The following article presents examples for "beating the market"...

Yes, of course.

Martinghoul, can I ask you to first determine exactly what my error is and then write here? Let me remind you what "errors" you found in chronological order: 1. The outcomes for my "binomial tree" are defined at will. If I were to try outcomes A) EURUSD rises 100%; and B) EURUSD falls 100%, and...

Hi, epetrov. A whole lot of financial theories are based on the assumptions that prices follow a random walk. I think that this is not true and in this article I have presented a logical argument. Since there is no error in my arguments, then if prices followed a random walk, everybody would...

Martinghoul, if eur/usd follows a random walk, then (eur/usd)*x is equally probable as (usd/eur)*x. And (usd/eur)*x=(eur/usd)*(1/x). Therefore eur/usd*2 is equally probable as eur/usd*0,5 and eur/usd*3 is equally probable as eur/usd*0,333333. If you consider this logic wrong, then I will not...

Now that's another thing which is very important. If eur/usd falls 100%, which means falling to 0, this is the same as usd/eur going to infinity. Such things are impossible for people who believe in random walks. You are right, if eur/usd rising by 100% is equally probable as eur/usd falling...

I don't understand where is the glaring fallacy.

Hello, MathAndLogic, I am the author of the article to which you posted a link. Thank you for the interest. That's not what I say. My experience until now is that very very few people understood what I have written. For some of them the reason might be unwillingness to read the whole...