In the area you circled, the close (which is what you drew) varied from 1115.28 to 1347.45, a range of 20.8%. If you include the intra-month values, the low was 1078.95 and the high was 1372.20, a range of 27.2%. Even that "tight" area was has a range much wider than you 1-3% or your new 10%...