Price action and delta convey the held offer or held bid. The Scenario just follows from that. Yesterday's Settlement is not real. The real Settlement is from Friday.
No. I am still long one third of a GDX position having scaled out of GC already so I guess you could call that a bearish posture. JPY 100 Touched will be problematic but I will hold for entry, GC 1350 Failed Bid, GDX 35 Touched, or late September.
If the Syria situation is off the Ask in the 60m Interval for now and you step up to the Daily to consider the Context you have to be mindful of JPY 99 Failed Offer. JPY 100 Touched would force me to reconsider my expectation for SPX 1625 Touched with VIX > 18 this week.
WSJ - Obama to Seek Congressional Vote on Syria Strike
President Says He Is Prepared to Order Military Action, but Wants Support First From Lawmakers
That seems to put a decision off until next week at the earliest, which should relieve some pressure on the Offer.
This chart is busy for illustration purposes.
The 60m Value and Momentum Structure continues to infer that SPX 1625 must be tested to confirm the SPX Trend Line from roughly last Thanksgiving. The SPX presented 1650 Failed Bid with conviction as conveyed by Momentum. SPX 1625 was well...