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Nope. We might get a little, insignificant blip down at some point, but all in all 2013 is the new 1996. Couldn't even get a selloff in MAY, so imagine what they'll do in bullish seasons like autumn and Christmas/New Years. Expect spooz to find themselves well above 2000 before the decade is...

Cutten and I have <b>already</b> taken quite a few shekels out of the feared widow-maker, so afaic the score is already Cutten 1, Krugman 0. nb- Besides the 'widow-maker', can anyone think of any other single trade that has a cool 'street name' like that? I can't even think of one.

In stocks: Absolutely not. In AAPL's case, only 4.4% of the float is held short, so for over 95% of AAPL longs there is absolutely no one holding the 'other side', because there is no other side. In futures and options: For every contract held long, there's someone holding the other side...

Also, I realized that by calling out the ADT short while keeping quiet about my other, bullish positions, it kind of makes me look like one of those unfortunate traders positioned short-only into this moonshot-rally market. So actually, that's not the case. I just don't have enough...

Long term I still like ADT bear positions. Short term, here at $43.24 is an opportunity to reduce size if you're holding more than you are comfortable with.

Didn't trade it, working on 'accomplishing NOT trading', which is important when you have a tendency to waste money by over-trading. And if I had a long from $28 lower (which I don't), I'd obviously <b>not</b> continue to hold the entire position without taking anything at all off the table.

5-6-2013 Does this count as "interesting"? <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3799636>

Did I just hear something about my favorite three major food groups? :D Cutten has me convinced, I'm short JGB's too. Now all we need is a little panic to set in.

Forget whatever you have in real life. That entire amount is taken away, and then you are given $500,000 this one time. And then the game begins.

Yes, that's exactly how I meant to set up the rules. Also, you only get that $500,000 once, to start with right now. You won't be given anything more in the future except the chance to double any amount wagered on that five in six chance, once a year for the rest of your life. <i>"Not if...

You picked the same as me, while everyone else chose to wager far less (so far). Note that there's no precise 'right answer' here, although I can't see any good reason for a professional trader to ever want to pass up on playing at all.

If you're not able to minimize the risk of taking a loss on any particular trade to less likely than one in six (and I know I've never been able to do that), your risk in playing the hypothetical game is <b>less</b> than you face ordinarily in the market already. The odds are wildly in your...

Do you take risks in the market?

Yes, 0% wagered counts as "10% or less". Your net worth has already been adjusted to $500K, and only now do you begin to have choices. ____ "In this hypothetical situation, your current net worth is first adjusted to exactly $500,000, and you have no choice on that matter even if this would...

As you may have guessed, I've never used an iron condor in my life. :p

He kind of has a point though, because IB could also set a lock on his combo position so that orders to leg out would not be accepted by TWS. Then the max risk is truly the max risk and no more. Alternatively, they could warn him up front that legging out would trigger a margin call, so there...

Sure, that would be the '10% or less' option.

Let's say one day an eccentric billionaire comes to you with the following mind-game (and backs it up with a suitcase full of cash): He'll give you double or nothing on the roll of a single die. If it comes up a 'six' you lose the entire amount wagered. If it comes up one through five, you win...

Link, if you please? (UTFSE didn't work)

Here's how I intend to play ADT going forward: Since the market can 'stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent', I'll keep light size on generally, adding significant size before each earnings report. It appears ADT management is the kind that denies they have a problem for as long as they...