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Yep ... if you have MS-Excel, there is a free add-on called YASAI which is a MC engine. The attached spreadsheet can be a starting point for you.

1 idea ... how about you put some skin in the game? You match your prospect's $100 with $100 of your own pocket ... this solves the immediate issue at hand + give you a lot of immediate credibility.

MC sim = MonteCarlo sim

Your rules seem defined clearly enough to allow you to program that and backtest it. Since it is 1 trade / day, you should use at least 2 years of backtesting (500+ trades) to get any chance of having some statistical significance. (Many will tell you to backtest 10 years, to make sure that...

I have never seen a system indicate anything re. future drawdowns. But I know one can use the trade distribution out of backtesting (or much better, out of forward testing) to run MC simulations and estimate the probability of any size of drawdown happening in a run of N trades. From that...

I have 2 IQ.feeds ... I find them very reliable. There is a cost to that though, you could give a try to Ninja/Zenfire (although I have heard people complaining in the last year) or some other datafeed bundled with Ninja if you want to shave these costs.

I use IQ.feed, my understanding is that every transaction comes in with its timestamp (to the second), so there is no dependency on the computer clock. I have no idea where this timestamp is originated though, exchange or IQ.feed server - but I suppose calling their tech-support (even...

On that note ... "Evidence-Based Technical Analysis" by Aronson is a must read - at least if you want to understand how to make the difference between a valid system and the rest. But even before that ... you have to realize that trading is a negative-sum game - meaning after the close, every...

When evaluating filters, I actually look at the performance figures for the inverse filter (that is, only the trades candidate to be filtered in the final system). It is even more difficult to come-up with good filter (say, a P/F for the inverse filter of 0.67 or less), than it is to get to a...

In "Enhancing Trader Performance", Brett N. Steenbarger argues that most psychological problems in trading are rooted in insufficient preparation - particularly, the lack of a perfectly identified edge & trading method for it, also the lack of practice at trading that method in all kind of...

Taking 200 cars average per trade, your 2-days backtesting is about $1,400 / car for 97 trades, ie. $15 average per trade, before comms & slippage (please tell me all your orders are LMT, and your simulation ensures price trade beyond the LMT before assuming a fill) - and this is without any...

You should make a little reality-check - just for yourself ... $119.34 comms for 97 trades seems a little off - even trading 1 ES under ECMP. Now, your largest winning trade of $9746.32 represents 195 ES points ... how many contracts are you "trading" in that simulation? My advice - trade it...

If you do the maths ... with a win% of 50%, the odds of a losing streak of 7 losers in a row are about 1% ... assuming an average 10 trades per day (you mentioned 5-15), you'll get two of these on average every month. If you are betting 5% per trade, this is 2 drawdowns of 35% or more every...

I wanted to thank you all for your constructive feedback ... at this time I have busied myself reviewing the differences between timeframes (V180 / V200 / V220 ... I added V100), which are essentially coming near the thresholds for pivots identification ... varying the timeframe sometimes...

I just have reliable tick data for CL, so this is all that I can test with. The system is designed to run on volume-bar charts, I just tested V180 & V220 ... overall system performance is degraded by ~35% for V180, and ~25% for V220. The attached spreadsheet shows P&L month by month for the 3...

Exactly! You have nothing to say on the topic of interest, so shut-up - there is nothing wrong for you to stay out of this thread, you have nothing to prove, and nothing for me either.

Wow, you really helped ... I like your remake of the EMG classic "mechanical systems will always fail - they just fail"

Thanks, it is nice to know I am not the only one to see & trade this pattern. You'd be surprised with what I can do in automation ... and probably even more when I tell you all the strategy is done using Ensign DYOs - but this isn't on topic, is it? The real topic is, how far from the...

What's obvious is that you are lacking anything pertinent to say on the topic of interest. Why don't you keep quiet then?

The problem is A) you are making grand statements without giving any explanation to support these statements and B) you discuss anything except the specific aspect I am seeking feedback on. This isn't a thread for anyone to prove anything ... but I would really appreciate if someone could...