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plus if the breakevens are truly too narrow, you simply reverse the trade.

es fly is short, max gain is at 1990... implemented and made a gain, used bullspreads on nadex, not binaries, maybe run the numbers again? thanks for the post.

long dotm puts.

yes. Aug's were sold a while ago, but historically the market does not dump during very low vix. Plus trades are long vega with tight stops. Vix can go lower, it has been in the single digits before.

Could very well be. This is a good time to sell premium. short aug 1430 and 1435 calls going into expiry. short Sep 1475 calls and 1235 puts already.

With the VIX hitting multi year lows, the S&P continues to drift higher, apparently drawn to the highs like a moth to a flame. The ATR5 has shrunk to 8 points and this has all the signs of a market top, that simply is not finished just yet. With volatile periods in recent August months...

thanks, are there complimentary s&p etc signals? they all appear members only? thanks.

hopefully ammo is back from vacation soon.

And usually right. Close enough for me. I'm sure Mav was bidding it up out of spite.

nice short.

I'm 50% confident the cash is more accurate :-).

We've made the measured move to match the last several upswings, 52 points for spx as of now. This could be the high, but not likely as the last move tends to overshoot as the public joins the parabolic. This might be the best August of the market recently.

Historical options data is expensive. extrapolation is a viable way to go. Also remember the vix moves up in a fairly linear way, then when panic sets, it goes parabolic as people are willing to pay whatever it takes for a put. Spreads become massive, as well, as you know.

yesterday's afternoon bottom looked suspicious. The gap up today was >1atr. This gap left huge air space and shorts looking for yet another move the lower end of the channel scrambling. The largest up bars this year have been < 32 points, spx 1395ish should be it for the day. 1400 is a wall...

nearly 30 point range for es. so little confidence in the markets right now.

Strange to see the VIX up so much today. Maybe just mean reversion on the large drop last week.

SPX is at the upper end of the channel, for the fourth time in 2 months. This time it coincides with the decending trendline beginning in 4/12. Since a lower high for the SPX was emphatically negated on Monday, some follow through is expected. Last week's move from the bottom of the...

Looks like you were right with QE3 rumblings and european bailouts driving the SPX higher yet again. Looking ahead, the statistically irrelevant Dow 30 is leading the way and the Rut, comp, ndx and DJ 20 are all lagging. Going into August, which has been a really bad month, in fact the...

It is humorous to me when someone thinks they have the secret trade and won't disclose strikes. Many a trader has dreamed of free long DN's to avoid of the pschological damage of theta bleed. 'Hope it does well for you.

cash 1343 is the 50% retrace mark. Today's low was 1346, that may be close enough to make a run for the highs.