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make sure your losses are small enough to maintain positive expectancy. You will have to deal with a lower win rate. Beware of 85%+ win rates.

If you do it 22 minutes after the open, it will win every time.

Not being evasive. This is strictly non directional trading, looking for theta. Which you would do if you believe there is expectancy in selling options. Calculate expectancy by taking the win rate times average win and subtract the losing rate times average loss. for example...

I think many do.

we cs all the time, and don't win all the time. it is a matter of honoring exits, not sitting until max pain, for us at least.

seriously? that doesn't sound attractive...

yes, and call premium collapsed as well, with a rather small down day.

Attention attention, please ignore me. :D Have a great week everyone.

another perspective is that atr oscillates around a base due to mean reversion. if atr is > or < base then the prediction should be skewed to the oposite. the simple formula is atr/close resulting in an indicator which somewhat behaves as an oscillator. The idea here is the dominant market...

es is providing your entry now. hate to admit it but 1250 is likely next stop.

definitely attractive risk/rewards. It's just these trades have a such a low probability of profit.

Simply that B-S does not reflect skew, and, in my view, causes the vix to under estimate probability of touch for puts, and at different times, overestimate and underestimate probability of touch for calls.

welcome to the limits of B+S model.

Cool platform. So what is expectancy on this trade?

I bet Obama wishes today's report came out last Friday...

Would love to see the up move over, but not so convinced :) .

right, but do you remember when we considered $80 to be high?! Look how far we've been skewed is my point. thanks. :p

es optioins are very liquid.

...he would say, "Obama, you were crushed yesterday."...with his eyes.

yes, oil going up kills any growth we are experiencing. Remember when $80 oil was high?