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It's not just about knowledge. You need to determine if you have the intestinal fortitude to handle losing. If the answer to that is no, all the reading in the world won't help you.

Crude once, several currencies, Nat Gas, Electricity was probably the nuttiest, several equities (individual issues- I mean sheesh, there is always some issue doing something nutty somewhere)... sprinkled in are some monster moves in other products. Not really sure what qualifies as Black Swan...

"The truth is the Fed hasn't nearly as much direct control over the money supply as generally assumed. It is fiscal measures that most directly affect demand. And the Fed is largely powerless with regard to fiscal matters." Yep, a dog and pony show.

"How many so-called Black Swan events have happened during the past 10 years covering those 975,000 RTH market minutes that you claim a trader needs protection against?" Focusing on one product, you miss the point. I've seen quite a few.

"Nobody can learn how to trade profitably by being taught. " - I did.

It's frickin Brazil. The dudes at home. Probably become a senator now that he has proven his qualifications.

My market's opening limit down, someone with a great model, please tell me what to do. ;) I was thinking of preeminently raising vol by 3, pumping the wings X, taking up the puts Y to bring the calls back down after the wing pump... See if that holds, and maybe I can dump some of my length out...

All sorts of crazy shit comes out of my mouth, but never once have I said "he's really not a great options trader, he just has a better model." Heck, I could trade options all day without any model. Bet I'd be dear near flat at the end of that day as well. I'm usually quite generous when I say...

OK, excellent answer. But what if every flip is an unfair toss. Market is 50/51 but 20,000,000/1,000. Still a flip at 50/51, but definitely not fair, and certainly not fair between 49 and 52. Modeling it makes no difference, I don't trust those things much anyway. Just something I've been...

"An unfair coin displays a strong trend in one direction" That assumes the coin is always unfairly weighted on the same side. ...professor, we don't need no stinkin' professor. Don't remember too many of them sittin' next ta me.

I'll go with, having sex with your hot step-daughter while your wife is sleeping next to you. Never happened to me, but seems to happen regularly in the movies that I watch.

"This is not the same as me saying..." The question was proposed to @LS1Z28. You are the last person I want advice from. Some know-everything kid whose read a couple of books, playing around with one and two lots.

"I'll agree with you on the basic theory that there is less randomness at higher time frames." - I have a question. Is this the same to you as saying that markets are more predictable over the long term? I'm trying to understand if people think this, as I have heard variations of it repeated...

Price has a reason. Price moves for a reason. Price is a language, the markets only voice. At times movement in the market is random. Other times it is not. This is obvious if you watch commodities, equities no. 50/50 Coin flip. Absolutely not. Unfair coin flip - more or less yes. ...and...

You're picking this up quickly :-)

"If rebates or transaction costs are a concern,you are in the wrong trade" ...Funny, I'd say if rebates and transaction costs aren't a concern to you, you are in the wrong trade.

Nope kid, I'm the first person to tell people that they'll probably get their ass kicked in trying to trade. Mostly because they are like you, and only see what they find acceptable to see. ...and that was your 4th dodge. So easy it's not worth your time to explain... No need to respond...

That was dodge number 3. No, not good luck. That is what you are trying to alter my comment to. My comment has nothing to do about predictive value. I am stating that without question and to which no one could deny, that when a whale comes in to a market and says @X, and he knows he has Y days...

Ahmarix, Taleb would laugh if he knew you said that to me. You have addressed everyone else in detail and rather aggressively, this is the second time you dodge the example, a real-world one, and one that happened frequently with me, so basically, I'll assume that you can't address it. That was...

Amahrix, On page 15 of this thread, I really wish you would comment beyond "Let's keep it simple," I am asking for personal reasons, I'm working on a book that adheres religiously to most of what you say, so much so that out of intellectual honesty I feel compelled to talk about various...