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I am not religious about any part of my trading nor am I an evangelist. But I like what you said about learning something new. So here goes: First you need a way to test the validity of an entry against random. I use a scatterplot: MAE vs. MFE. A valid entry methodology means if you plot...

What's the difference is between a strong trend and a weak trend? A market is trending or it isn't. When it is not, it is moving sideways.

Chewy, Steve is right. Come up with some way to test your entries on paper against random entries. When you can beat random then start trading real $ again. Then you will make $ month after month after month. The only thing you will miss out on in the meantime is pain.

You have the right idea, Scott. These kinds of statistics are the starting points for a successful methodology. I call it "winner profiling"-- you get all kinds of specific information on how your winners are supposed to behave. Then, when your current trade behaves differenty, you have a...

100 is a key level.

For the original poster and others interested in trading gaps in stocks, a great starting place is Bulkowski's "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns". Once again, the title is a misnomer. It should really be called "Simple statistical Technical Analysis of Chart Patterns with Applications to...

I think you will find that chartists use as many different time frame (and tick) schemes as there are chartists.

Thanks Lefty for a great thread, just one of the many great contributions you've made on ET. ET is lucky to have traders like you around. We hope you "reincarnate" some time in the future.

And then let us know if you learn anything interesting!:D What happens in the pit when we get one of those death spikes?

Yeah, if you don't want to cut down on the statistics, then no filter or policy will work, because a filter's job is to cut down the statistics.

I was thinking about if there was any difference between "predicting, and getting out if your prediction does not come true" and the probability framework that I use. Operationally, no, although it might help some who have problems accepting losses to think about it in terms of probabilities...

Maybe that guy predicted a breakout, I don't know. But... predict: foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason. It's a subtle point, but when I take a position I have no idea what is going to happen next. I am not fortelling anything except I will make money in...

High volume (1.3M) in an R zone that hasn't been touched since mid Feb, with price backing off from it. If it punches over 113 135/320 we're going to see one hell of a short squeeze. The rest of this week should be a good clue.

Probability and conditional probability is the way to go! Esp. when you can work position sizing into it.

The price and volume view is that today's rally was simply a continuation of the uptrend in place since early April. The low of the day was in the support zone around the previous swing high of 112 15/320 on May 5. On the intermediate (months) term the market is now in the congestion zone...

Is this not why God invented Stop-limit orders?

boink have a good weekend!

sold 1/3 at 35, 1/3 at 40, stop on 20 for the rest and fogettaboutit.

check out the bid size > 10k. anyone understand that?

looks like not much going on today. i added to my long on that poke and i'll try and sell the whole thing near the top of the range. My short plan is still in place.