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Here is the answer: move to a probabilistic framework, vice deterministic framework for your trading. Come up with a simple way to measure the efficacy of entries alone (without regard to exits). Measure what each technique does (or does not do) for your entries, compared to a distribution of...

What's the exit plan? Thx PD

For what it's worth, here is my personal experience with TA. For a couple of years I studied all the books and traded with a loosely defined plan based on various types of TA. I lost a lot of money. Then I had a long think to myself (about 6 months) without trading. I came up with simple...

NihabaAshi-- could you perhaps come up with a list of questions the trader should be able to answer if he understands the price action enough to backtest, as you put it? PD

Just looked at your charts-- you are right, can't make sense of what makes one work and another not with these charts. Next question is: if you look back farther in time, does the particular price level of each entry have any meaning? I would certainly take a look at this with longer term...

:eek: Where's the TA??

Problem solved: uninstall and re-install Java. It works fine now.

I just noticed that after every few bounces of the bar, a "cancel" button appears then quickly dissapears in the middle the little window.

TWS: I'm entering my name and PW, it gets to the "Login in Progress..." dialog with the little bar bouncing back and forth... and that's it. The dialog just stays up there bouncing sback and forth and nothing else happens. Any ideas on how to fix this problem? Other info: (1) internet...

A good start would be to compile a list of candle threads using the search function and posting a hyperlinked list here.

For those of you who have non-TA issues with Z, i'm sure he'd be glad to take them up with you in Chit-chat or PM. If you have an issue with what I am doing, PM or Feedback forum please. TA Forum is for TA only. If someone wants to post a chart without initial comments that is fine.

Many times that would be giving it too much leeway. In an uptrend, price shouldn't go too far below the last higher *high*. How far below? Depends on the market, you have to do a study.

If you were intending to share the entry with the board, it is not clear why the entry did not come earlier in the pullback.

If I couldn't find non-random situations where the probability was weighted heavily in my favor, I wouldn't trade. Others can't, don't know how, or don't believe it is possible. Not my problem or the problem of the many profitable traders who know how to find an edge. Here's the big secret...

So you are saying... I HAVE A CHANCE!! (Sorry, couldn't resist. :D )

You are right, the market isn't random, but are the entries you've taken better than random entries? That's where research comes in. Research-- not equal to backtesting, not equal to reading books on trading, not equal to automated trading... Anyway, that's what I had to do to start making...

You are equating research with mechanical systems. Silly. If you are entering a breakout, buying support, selling resistance, whatever, you need to know how it is supposed to behave after you enter. You have to collect statistics in order to estimate the risk. If you don't, you don't know...

Interesting, semi-recent article.

Oops, my bad. Apparently they have these conferences at UT periodically and I got a link to an old article. I couldn't find a news article about the most recent conference, but it was essentially the same thing. I still don't understand how anyone can say the "vast majority" of scientists...

A couple of months ago I attended a conference on global warming at the University of Texas, Austin. There is no scientific consensus on global warming, one way or the other. http://www.utexas.edu/opa/news/00newsreleases/nr_200003/nr_kyoto000302.html Note where it says "leading...