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After examining what happened in 02, you can look at the current 3-month chart and decide which of those phases the current market most closely resembles, if any:

and lastly (c) emerging from the double bottom

(b) hitting what would become the double bottom. Here you can clearly see that fewer stocks are hitting new lows, even though the index is slightly lower on the 2nd bottom

Thought it would be interesting to put up how the three month chart looked in 2002: (a) after the big decent and low, before the next bottom

It is how they use the technical indicators, not the indicators themselves that lead to losses. People need to learn how to gamble first (read Harrington's poker books). After that they can learn how to use technicals to make money.

Thanks for posting this. I think when the market turns back up, or at least stops falling, we will see a number of different data source have changed in behavior including the Corey's.

If you look there was a divergence before the latest low. There was a clear one in September too. Price is king-- I want to see that divergence and then a higher low before I adjust my strategies. Getting the ratio out of the basement (say to 0.5 or so) would be nice too.

Here's the latest. 3-month view. Credit where credit is due: I've been generating these charts on http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/filters/comp_nh_nl.aspx.

Yahoo Finance-- it just says "New Highs" and "New Lows," assumed it was 52 Week, my bad.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/05/AR2008120502533_pf.html

I was about to say the same thing about AMT4SWA (and prolly he was about to say the same thing about me) :p

NYSE today: 21 New highs 75 New lows Naz: 8 New highs 90 New lows nice "rally"

p.s. one thing to notice about the previous 2 charts: scale on the left. Currently we have been pegged below 0.10 for some time. In 2003 0.10 was just touched a few times. I can't help but look at that and think the market is in far deeper trouble this time around.

Mamis discusses and shows examples of using data (as opposed to indicators which are functions of price, such as the MACD) to identify when a trend is probably near the end. Three of his books are "The Nature of Risk", "When to Buy" and "When to Sell". Some of the stuff is outdated but much of...

Blue is the ratio of stocks making new highs to new lows (I believe new 52-week highs to new 52-week lows.) Red is the S&P 100 (you can look at the DJIA or whatever instead, doesn't matter). According to Mamis one tip off of a bottom is lower prices but less stocks making new lows (a...

Now here is the current situation:

As far as I can tell, no sign that the market has bottomed. Here is the 2002 bottom.

What would be super-interesting is if someone could annotate the chart with the number of stocks making new 52-week lows on each new low in price.

No personal attacks.

It all comes back to the same thing: can you measure the effectiveness of your entries-- and if so-- does requiring a trend (defined however you wish) increase the effectiveness of your entries? That being said, I have never experimented with magnitude of trend, only existence of trend. My...