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I am thinking that 1x inverse etf like ticker "SH" is better than more leveraged, for whatever reason.

Again, not looking for any help. This was meant to be an intellectual discussion on how SPXU works.

No need to drag your wife into this and insult her in a public forum.

Communication breaks down when one has a tunnel vision:)

again if you are focusing on "my scenario". Now, I am not talking about hedging, maybe I just want to speculate on the downside. is SPXU better than deep in the money put option. That's another "scenario". STOP FOCUSING ON THE FIRST ONE!

I thought we are only analyzing SPXU and how it behaves on S&P movement. I know what a hedge is. If SPXU goes to pennies and never returns to its original value when S&P goes to 4000, then it's not all that different to options. I know I will gain in the long position. My question was to...

I was doing ok even in the last years bull market but the move from 2700 to 2840 in about 3 weeks was the final nail in the coffin:)

I am not concerned about it being a perfect hedge at all. More concerned about SPXU becoming pennies IF SPX goes to 4000.

So where do we stand now? My reason for not buying put options is that they expire and I lose. As one guy said, if SPX goes to 4000, SPXU will be pennies and it will never return back to original value, then it will be a problem.

Are there any inverse etfs that track annual returns instead of daily?

So it's no good as a hedge in a 2 or 3 year bear market? Then only thing left to do, other than taking a cash position, is shorting SPY etf in a IRA account as a hedge to 401k. Thoughts?

Elaborate please.

uh oh! knew it was too good to be true. That's why I am trying to learn how to calculate SPXU values at various stages of S&P.

The way I see it, if S&P goes to 4000, my 1000 shares of SPXU may be at $7.5 or even $5 but they won't expire. When the bear market does happen and SPX comes down to 2000(50% correction), my 1000 shares of SPXU maybe worth something(don't know how much) which help offset the 401k. Sort of...

Yes, I understand. Thanks:) Even if I lose 10k (1000 shares of SPXU at $10), it's nothing compared to what I could lose in options.

Thanks, my reasoning leaning towards SPXU is they won't expire like options and I know I will eventually be right. I guess "They" don't want everyone doing this. That's why the internet is filled with articles on why these should not be used long term. Just like every article about heart disease...

Thanks but I am not looking at flash crash scenario. Just a bear market from 2018 to 2020 or something like that, to hedge 401k.

SPXU is -3x etf for S&P and is trading at 9.50 today when S&P is at 2835. IF S&P crashes to 2000 and then to 1000, what will be SPXU trading at? Can any gurus take the time to answer please.

I am a bear by nature and feel comfortable selling:)

You are right! Maybe, I will revisit ICs when the vix hits 20s.