Search results

  1. S

    This S&P 500 Death Cross Could Be The Real Deal

    The death cross is one of the few analysis items that the mainstream financial media cites which is actually an objective and empirically calculated series. Usually, they cite subjective and anecdotally based analysis ( based on "sentiment", chart patterns, support resistance levels, Fibonacci...
  2. S

    Trend detection

    A pure price cross heuristic above and below the 10 period monthly basis moving average applied to the S&P500 and long bond market has produced risk adjusted alpha over buy and hold over a 30 year sample. Using the Nasdaq 100 / QQQ * as the equity proxy is a decent way to increase and exploit...
  3. S

    Startup Touts Blockchain Exchange That’s as Simple as E-Mail

    http://dontapscott.com/books/blockchain-revolution/
  4. S

    Warren Buffett buys stake in Apple

    Doesn't matter what Buffett does. Just buy Mid cap growth ( MDY ) and you'll be better diversified and not held hostage to Buffet and Munger's esoteric and discretionary methods ... Random starting periods: http://tinyurl.com/jjsn7y2 http://tinyurl.com/hot2d3b http://tinyurl.com/hnoyo9y James...
  5. S

    Ascending vs Descending triangles

    Peter Eliades was one of the more well know experts of using chart patterns http://www.cxoadvisory.com/15412/individual-gurus/peter-eliades-cycling-the-markets/ One time on FNN in 1989( in the aftermath of the 1987 crash when Prechter and many others were trying to predict stock market demise...
  6. S

    Made $1.15 million in 18 months, lost $1 million in 12 months, will I ever be good at trading?

    One doesn't need to "trade" in order to grow assets sufficiently as we can use "longer term" mindset and holding of equity classes to generate growth. ( fortunately / with some skill, I "held" onto my profit growth during my trading years in the 80's and 90's, "threw in the towel", and migrated...
  7. S

    Real Good in Real Time

    One of the best learned lessons / steps that students can take, is to open Roth IRA's ( they will most likely have reportable income from part time work and can have a parent help with the intial 2 - 3 years of contributons ). These initial early amounts invested tax deferred in small cap value...
  8. S

    Moving Averages are Random

    The best equity index price / moving average crossover process is monthly basis. It "contains" many of the false signals / whipsaws that a daily derived price / moving average crossover produces and one doesn't have to sit in front of a computer day in and day out to follow it. James Director...
  9. S

    trading psychology or academic

    When you're young, you can mess around with making decisions based on feelings. When you get into midlife and all of the infrastructure associated with it, you want to accumulate ( retirement ) assets based on something grounded in "evidence" ( or have something with steady cash flow such as...
  10. S

    Taking all of the trades vs taking trades/selling based on feelings.

    - don't quit your day job - don't use leverage - migrate / transition over to positioning in longer term trends reflecting the underlying growth of the U.S. economy / equity markets - much of performance deterioration is letting emotion guide decisions rather than strategy ( strategy that has an...
  11. S

    How can individual traders compete with large trading houses?

    In taking positions representing longer term trends underlying economic growth and productivity ( U.S. economic trends and markets especially ), there is nothing to "compete" against. Short term price movements are, most likely, dictated by institutional / sovereign fund flows, headline risk/...
  12. S

    Miserable trading market

    One has to observe asset accumulation over decades. Many times, money is made by sitting in cash ....
  13. S

    Getting spiked during after hours trading

    These are the short term, random moves that strike fear in the hearts of short term trading disciples. After a few years of these, I converted to holding positions / investments based on long term trends and sleep much better at night. James Director, Quantitative research XXX Boulder, CO
  14. S

    Mental Checklist

    Much of the "mental" preparation, emotional / behavioral biases can be alleviated by using evidence based processes (preferably low turnover), with high historical confidence of successful outcomes. Add to this, low turnover, pre-defined transaction dates throughout the year ( versus randomly...
  15. S

    Just a Newbie

    Trading and "investing" are different animals ( and can have similar results ? ) IMO, the shorter the time frame, the more random and chaotic price movements become because of the tug of war between algos, institutional traders, soveriegn fund flows, knee jerk reaction to news flow, etc. And it...
  16. S

    Just a Newbie

    It's important to determine your process, position holding time frame(s), and behavioral biases. Quantitative ( invest, trade with objective, empirically derived information and analysis that is replicable )? Discretionary ( using subjective interpretation, instinct )? Long, medium, or or short...
  17. S

    Trading is science and trader is artist

    Over 25 years, I never saw a trader / newsletter/ blogger that was able to produce long term alpha / provide comprehensive, empirical replicable evidence with charts. There were many in Hulbert financial digest ( audited newsletter performance rankings for 30+ years ) that failed to outperorm /...
  18. S

    How long did it take you to become consistently profitable?

    15+ years ... years that led, not necessarily to the "consistency" of the profits or even the premise of "profits" being the motivation and goal behind the process, but to the construction of models whose evidence and signaling regimes instill a confidence and belief in the premise of "asset...
  19. S

    Could someone explain to me the basic financing advantage of futures over ETFs?

    If you are trading straight, unhedged directional bets, be very careful and judicious with futures contracts. Have a larger account balance in place per contract than you think you need. James Director, Quantitative research XXX Boulder, CO
  20. S

    Backtesting ideas?

    Buying Large cap or Small cap value Nov - Apr and replacing with Large cap "dividend growth" / Utilities sector / cash May - Oct is one way to exploit the "anomaly" and has produced consistent alpha premium over a 50 year sample...
Back
Top