Search results

+1 Happy Halloween :D

There is little doubt that cross border investment flows represent both opportunity and risk. Moving capital where it should be more productive represents a rise in liquidity for the recipient economy. This creates an obligation and risk to effectively employ investment capital. The cross border...

Quote from gov: the conversion happens when you truly believe the future is not knowable. We have such a problem with that as a concept, as though we hate it with all our being. Start thinking you know the outcome, and you have already slipped. That belief in chaos set me free. Without having...

Well Said :) Derivatives and speculators always get painted with the black brush. There are no thank you's for mechanisms that for the most part promote price stability.

CL (as many have said) is a cleaner instrument technically. Right now FX impacts seem to be driving everything. With luck markets may have a better idea of what QE will mean next week. I wouldn't bet on that though. From your thread it's clear that you're an "action" guy. CL will keep you awake...

+1 The Bill Gross Ponzi Scheme comments helps balance fears. When someone with his stature calls game over for the trend, it's probably accurate. The Fed can't fix everything. When we're lucky they seem to be able to kill the monsters they help create in a timely manor. Sometimes they don't...

psytrade - nice reference (Night of the Living Fed). From pg 16: Very Brief Recommendations 1) Emphasize U.S. quality companies, which are still cheap in an overpriced world. 2) Moderately overweight emerging market equities. 3) Moderately underweight the balance of global equities. 4)...

Lets face it, anything labeleled "Trickle down" can't be good if you're looking up at it :) Getting dewy eyed over RR or debating any poorly executed economic idea is probably a waste of time. It's a hoot watching the baggers and rep's play their soundbites. I started my work life in the...

The Tudor letter gives a nice summation of how things got the way they have. It takes a high style view which honestly neglects the real truth that too much money was being made for anyone to be interested in stopping the process. I'm not sure that the concept of "analogous year" works as a...

Bill Gross sounded pretty fed up in his recent outlook: * The Fed’s announcement of a renewed commitment to Quantitative Easing has been well telegraphed and the market’s reaction is likely to be subdued. * We are in a “liquidity trap,” where interest rates or trillions in...

This is so true. Watching this thread and seeing the calls is a real education in the art of being fluid (and hopefully in sync) with markets. It's about trading "What you see" as the old saying goes. NOD - Nice Tick Numbers - They have a nice $$ ring to them :D

"Correlation" is probably not a good word to try to pin on the relationships in play. Oil is one component of the global energy business. At any given time supply or scarcity in one market can only have so much of an impact on essentially global pricing. On the commercial side of the trade oil...

Old news - IEA weekly says: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 366.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of...

You can get access to API's report if you want to subscribe. As you can see from the snap shot of pricing on their subscription form it's pretty steep for non-members. The cheap alternative is for key info is from the web. API estimated a 1.5 million bbl build in crude; their actual was 6.4...

If QE is small, not at all, or on a month to month wait and see, long commodities will be a bad move - rethink this :)

Euro dropped but crude was flat? Perhaps traders are just antsy going into inventory numbers? EDIT: "Flat" is a relative term :) If I'm making too much noise here or breaking anyone's concentration - just let me know - I'll go away. I'm trying to learn a bit about day trading from you guys :D

On the hourlies, the relationship between CL and $ (euro as a proxy) look to have broken down a bit over the last two days. In my view oil breaks to downside following inventory data points.

I'm using broker's cheap quotes which don't include DX. Looking at A2; B2; C2; Y2; and S2 this just looks like folks perhaps lightening ahead of the weekends G-20 meeting. Geithner's agenda (GDP based trade surplus limits) would likely be $+ (in the minds of many). I'm not sure I agree though. I...

My interest was the tag line of this thread. To me it's hype - little more. Anyone who want to be a player in CL needs to post in RT on CL Redux. (I'm not there yet) There is a lot of PD regarding oil. The most recent EIA tells the tail as far as I'm concerned - Interpret as you will :)

Great thread gents - been lurking here the last couple days. The CL / $ relationship looks in tact. The question is how the FED is going to act post mid terms. Real QE or just QE talk? I don't think API's / EIA's are going to show sufficient draw in products to bring a bid under CL. A few...