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It is common knowledge that most hedge funds, mutual funds, and advisors under-perform the general market. Even Warren Buffet has fallen behind! It seems that the vast majority of market participants do worse than average. I’ve always wondered, how can this be so? Why is it so hard to beat the...

Getting into it.

I started trend following (deep stop orders for fairly long hold periods, no shorts) in 2015. I knew I hadn’t hit a bear market or flash crash yet and that my system wouldn’t work anymore. I didn’t know how to define my bear market strategy in advance but when the time came, beginning in late...

A globalist isn't necessarily an authoritarian. Let freedom ring even across international borders! But I agree than these days the left-of-center mainstream (try living in Seattle) is elitist and wants much more control over everyone.

FCG. It's down 95% from its high and natural gas isn't going away.

For me it's that bonds and gold can also crash, but later, less, and recovering sooner.

Hey all, thanks for your input. My method is too different for your ideas to have helped direcly, but they caused the wheels to turn in my head. I'm trying a new countertrend measurement: (trendline price minus current price) / trendline price. Bigger the number, more attractive the trade. Added...

I trade (or "invest" since I hold for a couple months on average) mainly using trendlines. I like to combine that with countertrend in a shorter time frame for better entries and exits. Say the price of something is snaking upward within a channel. I want to buy when it is kissing the bottom of...

The MMT discussion is too America-centric. "American Exceptionalism." Most countries don't produce the currencies used in international trade or as bank reserves. Most of them peg their currencies to the dollar or euro. Most of them have a history of debt defaults that keep them from achieving...

You and I had that good discussion a while back. I use 6.8 times the 14-day ATR, as being compatible with my preference to hold things about a month on average. (I would always prefer it to be longer but the markets are usually too choppy.) Actually I use an average of what that calculation...

You once said you use wide stop losses but this seems narrow. Have you narrowed them up?

An inverted yield curve is an indicator of coming recession, which the Fed should avert by easing money.

Another observation on how bond ETFs differ from stock ETFs is that it makes no sense to buy into an "oversold" condition because there's no herd mentality for that equity per se. Price mostly just responds to what's happening in the overall bond market. If may, however, make sense to "trend...

I trade intermediate term in stocks and stock ETFs. To a lesser extent I also trade in bond ETFs. In order to bridge the conceptual gap I pretend to myself that the bond ETF is a public company (you can buy its stock) whose business is buying and selling bonds. There are many types of bond ETFs...

I don't use the MA crossover. Rather I quantify trend as a slope (or regression line) and use that as one of several factors in asset selection. I use MAs, in part, to calculate my stop loss order. But our approaches are similar enough that I'd like to talk to you at length. Are you amenable to...

I suppose you are in cash lately because the 20 would have crossed below the 50 a while ago and hasn't rise above it again since.

I've noticed that, unlike other ETers, you trade somewhat like I do. So I looked up threads you've posted. On this one I ask, since you are a long-term trader, in your 20 and 50 EMAs are the periods days? And do you confine this Black Swan-watchout process to a single market or two that you...

Define trend and calculate your stop loss however you want. That's not the point. The question is pertinent to the overall long-term market, right now. It fell in early February, rebounded for a month, and is falling again right now.

Say I'm a long-only trend follower who stops out whenever something loses 7% from the previous high. That preserves my capital, or does it? If I jump back in on a new trend but it turns out to be a bear trap, I lose another 7%. If a bear market has started this could repeat until my capital is...

When I started trading it was like I'd grabbed a tiger by the tail. It was all so complex and required so much research, thought, and organization. I was all by myself. My method is so different no one could relate to it. I nobody to compare notes with, and still don't. I didn't know if it was...