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not to start a fight on a sunday morning but here goes... 1. just b/c es (or any instrument for that matter) goes up a lot very fast and temporarily stalls doesn't mean it will reverse. there's nothing wrong w/ betting on a reversal just keep a tight stop. 2. i agree that the win rate is...

not to beat a dead horse but here's the simple solution that has been said many times before: use ib for exec and someone else (iq feed for futs, tos now tda for options data, etc) for data.

excellent point - there could be a black swan that drives TNX to 1.5 from 1.841 (diff of 34 bps) but that doesn't mean mtg rates which are keyed off the TNX will drops the same amount. my guess is they'd drop 10 bps - maybe. remember unlike the spx, the mtg rate can vary from bank to bank -...

just buy puts on tlt.

you're def minimizing you're risk in case shtf by keeping the absolute min amount in the account so that's good. there are a few quality brokers/clearing firms for futures besides ib. look at advantage futures. they're a relatively smaller firm but they take risk management seriously (none of...

you're "not in the mood"? umm how would your mood be when a news flash comes onto bloomberg saying pnsn is insolvent and you can't get your money out for who knows how long? this is probably a really bad analogy but anyways...saying you're not in the mood to think about how you're going to...

as a follow up to the previous poster's response, there was a famous case a while ago that adam warner who used to write the dailyoptions website of a company that annouced a buyout immediately after the close on fri of expiry - well all those short otm calls thought they collected the premium...

try bloomberg or wsj

i was going to write a sarcastic response back but in the spirit of "if you can't say something nice"...here goes...to the op, you are taking a risk you do not think you are taking by selling cds on countries. just b/c something hasn't happened before doesn't mean it won't happen in the future...

if i understand your sit correctly, this is what happens in illiquid options - the b/a "magically" changes after you put in your order. there is no way around this except to stick to liquid options.

IIRC, the regulated side of refco (futures not spot) was ok. those trading spot got hosed. if i'm wrong pls correct. unless you're trading some exotic pair (insert inappropriate joke here) like EURTRY or USDPLN or whatever and can't find liquidity in the cme futures, just stick w/ futures.

they would also need access to your phone (if that's how you're getting the two way authentication codes). i get them on my rimm which is password protected itself so it's impossible to get the code unless someone breaks in and puts a gun to my head but at that point i guess i'd have bigger...

re the dx, try trading fxe (eur etf) - the spreads are tighter and volume is higher and eur makes up about half of the dx index anyways - not a true replacement but the best we're gonna get considering the alternative.

works fine - never any probs for me. i'd strongly suggest you do this. yeah it's a pain to enter in the code (you can have goog "remember" a computer for 30 days so you don't have to keep entering it). but it's a bigger pain to find out your email and whole life was hacked. w/ 2 way...

related funny but absolutely true story re to selling options ahead of earnings...i worked at a retail brokerage once and took a call from a client who had sold enough naked puts to choke an elephant on a highflier momentum stock. anyways in his infinite wisdom he did this less than a week...

and considering owning or leasing a seat automatically makes you pay FICA taxes on earnings while not having one doesn't i'm not suprised.

i'm in your exact same position (getting up at 5, reviewing market overnight action, reading bloomberg, etc. then going to work then coming home to review charts, read, etc). the most important thing you have is the passion b/c everything else flows from that. one of the biggest factors in my...

have you thought about buying otm options to protect against gaps?

julian robertson closed his hedge fund in in 99 or 2000 (you can look up the exact date) after famously losing a huge amount betting against the tech bubble. ironically enough the market burst less than a few months after he closed up. something about the market being irrational longer than you...

i'd look to 155-160 to take profits since that's the area it broke down from. it will take a lot to break back through there.