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As observed in real time.

Now NDX 35 Failed Offer so if long bias then willing to consider NDX 45 Touched again. So watching for NDX 35 Held Bid again.

NDX 35 Failed Bid right after Europe Close. So NDX 45 Touched improbable unless and until 35 Reheld.

NDX is absorbing negative delta at 35 area to infer absorption of the selling pressure at this level into the Europe Close. So if you are long bias you are watching what happens here into and after Europe Close to decide if a retest of NDX 45 is feasible by days end.

After NDX Settlement Gap closed and IB extended so very important event for rest of day.

Now watch NDX 35 for Held Bid into Europe Close

In the TF...

This is exactly what I was explaining to you yesterday. You were trading off the pre-market before observing the test of Settlement. Go look at the ES and you will see what happened ahead of the news at 0900 CT. If you understand what is happening you are long now like me with half off to...

That imperial model has worked since 1982 in the context of multiple real deflationary factors. I don't think the Fed will enjoy the same luxuries over the next 30 years.

This is progress.

Just came back from a school event for my son. Did I miss anything? :)

Price is an output of the market process but also an input. After all, why do you need to look at lines on a chart? Gaps matter to you because they matter to most participants on a volume weighted basis. Here is a gap study that may help you understand the probabilities of a gap close each...

You need to understand that the market makers don't give a flip about your overnight analysis. There is a Gap in the RTH and the first order of business is to see if it holds. Unless you come flying out of the Open away from the Gap you have to be very mindful of a Gap fill early in the Session.

Again there is some confusion about your Interval of Trade. As I said above the best Setup of the RTH Session was not at 0844 CT but at 0906 CT. And when I say best I am speaking in terms of probability versus payoff ratio.

Attached. The Settlement Gap is visible relative to yesterday's RTH Close. The Fib levels are applied to yesterday's RTH range, Close to Close. They just indicate the area of the 24hr Daily Pivot that everyone is watching. NDX 3180 is conveyed by the Blue Line. First it is 80 Held...

No. You are in the midst of a Settlement Gap Test before news at 0900 CT as evidenced by NDX 80 Held Offer. Then you have NDX 80 Failed Offer into the news event followed by NDX 80 Held Bid after the news. NDX 80 Held Bid after a test of the Settlement Gap is the best Setup of the entire RTH...

SOX and XRT never confirmed the lag in TF in terms of today's structure. But I would agree that TF divergence indicates start of distribution process before shake out after Fed mtg. As for today unless and until the SOX or XRT violate their Open I am playing for a retest of yesterday's high in...

Yes watching NDX 90 to see who wins

Algo swept around ES 96.25 now trying to move towards VWAP and ES Daily Pivot at ES 94.25

SPX 1710 Touched remains the agenda into the Fed Meeting that concludes tomorrow. The Summers news just pushed it along. After that I assume a shake out next week.