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that's right. when analyzing expectancy one has to rely on all possible outcomes. in the very long run, results will be always converge to the statistical mean (zero). he who has a solid edge should be aware that his edge will fade away sooner or later. in that sense, some of my associates...

from a statistical standpoint it does. i mean, if that would not be the case, then the market maker would have never filled you in the first place. dont forget options are zero sum game. a bet that pays 8 for 1 has the following payout equation. meaning, in the long run, the net result of...

sure. but, if you'd analyze a statistical relevant sample, you'd come up with 50/50 chances on average or to be more precise, roughly 51/49 when accommodating survivorship bias, positive drift and inflation. this is revealed by empirical analysis as well.

pabst that's an excellent article, very well written and synthesizes the essence of trading. thanks. however i have to disagree with how you have articulated the message of using options vs futures in the example cited above. you say that you have decided to enter a put spread with payoff...

wow. here it comes once again. thesecretstory.com crap is about take off now. imagine a site which is accessible to anyone across the web, whose purpose is marketing (and sell) the "secret" of success. what a freaking paradox. but wait, you have to see it. it looks like alice in...

my guess is OP is bust or at least in a middle of mid-thread DD crisis. the guy is dramatically over leveraged playing in a craps table in which the house has a huge "edge". all this while bragging about being a former fortune 500 CFO and being used to do this all the time... she could get lucky...

it looks like you have abandoned the covered call strategy after busting on C2. now your actual systems are based on futures. i guess strategy is based upon puretick nonsense, doesn't it? otoh you're still changing $200 or so to your subscribers at blahblah.com for the covered call crap. how...

thanks mandelbrot. now for the final cherry on this topic i will hand everybody the kingdomcapital audited results for the year. after all it is not that bad. enjoy. :D...

Aaron makloda and scribia have a point. you should come clean posting a full tws window or admit is paper trading.

wow. and this comes from the site owner of http://www.kingdomcapital.com/performance/8yrperf.htm how pathetic and unprofessional is that? someone that publishes that amount of crap in the internet and tries to rip customers with that covered call crap should stay with her mouth shut all the...

i hate to be a party crasher but ib paper trader looks like this. eliminating those semi transparent letters from tws is a tough job. so he is either very good at trading and well capitalized or very good at ps.

alex under the circumstances, i would recommend you to accept that job offer at goldman. i know it is only 1 mil salary but this puretick stuff it is not going anywhere and based on your replies above, it sure looks like have all the personal skills necessary to become a successful investment...

i would decreasenow.

lisbon based as well.

neke congrats on this year's journal. i know you have quite good programming skills and that you have automated some of your strategies in the past. i dont know whether you remember but i asked you last year why were you trading manual if had the chance of eliminating the downside of human...

i suppose that when you enter a trade and the trade goes against you call the broker to cancel the trade, dont you? and then you go the internet mb to whine about how unprofessional that broker was.

thanks for posting. great stuff. they sum up the essence of efficient trading there. too bad not everybody understands it.

one long fut + one long put = one long call

and worthless

i am not so sure you'll be able to lose as much during the year, that is, 75% loss is very difficult unless of course you are day trader. :eek: but i am inclined to say a 50% loss per annum is very doable provided you follow the rules and suggestions of most of the senior members here on ET. :D