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Looks like Scenario 2 is playing out although it's too early to be for sure. A wave of selling could come at any time. Interesting to note is that the ES just barely missed the prior low by a few points. If the selling pressure building up from the limit down couldn't get it there, I think...

It looks to me that oil has suport at 63. Tested twice today. Now it's up to 64.37. I went long at 64.18. It's worth a shot. Stop is 62.50.

That's what I did yesterday, but bought it back. What's weird is TF started going up at 9am. Someone knew the market was headed upward. :) So I added a long on TF just for fun. :) Oil too.

I'm long ES. How can I hedge against a big drop? Can I go long yen? Or is it too late? Anything else? Both oil & gold turned up when ES went limit down. I'm wondering if they'll follow through.

this is the best definition of the carry trade I've seen. Thank you. Is it too long to go long Yen as a hedge? I'm currently short euro and long dollar but those aren't moving as fast as the Yen. I wish I had known about this carry trade many months ago. It's fascinating.

I totally agree with you. Yesterday when it looked like a breakout down from the triangle I started shorting another index as a hedge. I took it off as the market started rebounding. So I'm not totally blinded by my long here, I'm open to anything. For me the move started in asia and then...

CL is right at support at 66-66.80. I added a long at 67 with a stop at 65.50. A doji is forming on the 60 minute chart. It's also oversold by the RSI(9).

Why 850? 860 is a support testing twice already in the past 24 hours. The next level is the previous low which was 840. If the market makes it to 840 it wouldn't be surprising if it pushes a little lower before pulling back up. This is what the nasdaq has done twice now, both times on...

The thing I noticed about the intraday swings is that they have been going down and then after lunch or even in the last 30 minutes the market has moved higher on higher volume. That tells me that the pro's are waiting until the end of the day to buy at a discount. And makes me think buyers...

Unfortunately I'm already long, from a few weeks ago. yeah, that was stupid. The thing is we must follow the charts and not follow our gut. If I had followed the charts I wouldn't be holding my long during the biggest crash in our lives. I'm not making that mistake again. But anyway...

Here's the S&P 500 daily chart (linked to above):

I'm seeing major positive divergences in the indexes. Here is the S&P: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p31499194469&a=151197522 (attached in the post below) MACD, RSI, Williams %R, and Force Index all have major divergences. Furthermore I can't believe the...

I went long yesterdya at 69. I was at work and didn't have time to really analyze it. Now I see it has pulled back to support. I'm very tempted to add another long, and if it drops down to the previous long of 66 I'll add another long. If it manages to go below 66, say 65 I'll reverse and...

I agree. The way it blew through 2.05 and then 2.0, I don't see any relief. Copper is one of the most affected by the recession predictions.

Yes, *unless* they appear after a bottom. So the question is if you believe it was a bottom? If no, then breakout down. If yes then breakout can be in either direction. Today's doji put it back into the triangle and I'm putting odds on a breakout to the upside. There just isn't much...

I know he says some crazy things, but in his defense he said "average consumers are not affected". I think this is true from a consumer point of view. The only thing that I see personally from my family is that people are holding off on purchases and companies are holding off on hiring. But I...

The move down happened while I was at work. I was relieved to see it was on low volume. It wasn't a surprised that it started up again after lunch. Lately the trend is a move up in the last half hour or so. Today it started about 2:15. I think buyers are in control. The markets...

Thank you for your charts. I agree with your assessment. I covered my short and went long. Will put my stop just below 66.80 and if oil goes below I will be ready to reverse and go short. Thanks for sharing. I've been at work the past 2 days and haven't had time to follow the markets.

Thanks for posting the chart. Excellent analysis. Oil is definitely finding support at 67. If it can't break through support then it may be worth going long (reversing for those already short). and if it breaks through then it's worth a short (or adding on a contract for those already...

I haven't looked back that far, will do so after work. Look on a 60 min chart at the down trend line. Until it breaks this, it's still going down. A pause in the downtrend or a small retractment is normal. I'm remaining short for now, but I would only enter a new position at a support...