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  1. M

    In memory of M3

    There is an excellent article in this weeks "The Economist" titled "Running on M3"...
  2. M

    Any one trade bund outright?

    Dogfish, Thanks for your post, very interesting... The patterns you describe are exactly those which have been killing me for the past 6 months. These flippers get into action generally in the morning in a slightly trending market with below average volume. When not caught by them, I tried...
  3. M

    UK Scalpers

    Try this link http://www.trade2win.com/traderpedia/Trading_Arcade_Index
  4. M

    Discretionary vs mechanical trading

    OK... After my last post I believe I am a predictable idiot... :)
  5. M

    Discretionary vs mechanical trading

    My 2 cents... In my experience as a trader, I had the opportunity to test both strategies. My first job was to work for a CTA. Although very interesting, I find it over time extremely frustrating to follow the firm models blindly, and not intervening when I "felt" I would have put another...
  6. M

    UK Scalpers

    Hi guys, This thread was actually great... I learnt a lot reading monkey's old posts, as well as Cutten and Stratcat ones. Extremely interesting... I am wondering if they are still there... I left an IB a couple of months ago to daytrade the bund in a prop shop (I was an HY trader for a few...
  7. M

    How to spin my resume?

    Easy... Don't be so rude... The guy just begun trading and had 6 difficult months. He will have to explain his first experience in his next interviews... Raize, scalping is an extremely difficult job. It is not a shame to be negative after 6 months as long as you are learning. IMHO, you...
  8. M

    how much did you lose on the correction today?

    gooood ! :) Just remembered I was stuck for a long time in an illiquid position on the 09's...
  9. M

    how much did you lose on the correction today?

    I have been EM trader for a few years... Let's check : what is the benchmark LT bond in Costa Rica? :)
  10. M

    Bobl Move today?

    Remember it was 2:30 in the US at that time...
  11. M

    Bobl Move today?

    OK Tx... It's just that the news stated the quake happened at 32... Now I know why I lost money :)
  12. M

    Bobl Move today?

    9:28... You must be base in england, right?
  13. M

    Bobl Move today?

    I believe the earthquake has nothing to do with it as the move on the Bund/Bobl/Gilt happened 4 minutes before. The news on California were released on BBG / Reuters much later. On the bund, more than 40,000 lots traded in 3 minutes... All that I know is that I entered a short on the Bund...
  14. M

    If You Were Convinced ?

    :) You are completely right, but you know that as an economist, he doesn t have a stop loss! I just wanted to point out that on interest rates you can pick 10 top economists, far mor intelligent than I am, and they will have 10 different views...
  15. M

    If You Were Convinced ?

    Your condescendance suggests that you are in the "smart money camp", and therefore you have great ideas about the future direction of interest rates. Please share them with us. BTW, I just read the reports of two truely brilliant economists (Roach from Morgan Stanley and Rosenberg from...
  16. M

    If You Were Convinced ?

    Sell ED futures only if you think that short term interest rates are going to rise HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. There are already a few IR hikes priced in the ED, which represent a "consensus" view. You can also short the banking sector, most likely to suffer from tightening periods if you are really...
  17. M

    bund vs ty

    On a pure Interest rate perspective, the correct hedge is currently 69 bunds for 100 Tnotes. I took into account the current OAS duration on BBG (8.17 for Bund and 7.6 for the Tnote) and a EURUSD of 1.1965 However, to trade the spread I would take into account the historical volatility...
  18. M

    Bund

    Any idea of what is going on with the bund? 40,000 lots in 2 secs...
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