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Ahh, but therein lies the rub. Which are the "right" stocks? In an environment such as this, unlike the tech bubble of the late '90s, where you could pick just about anything with a .com after its name and it exploded, picking such a stock is like picking the right lottery numbers today...

True. Only Surf knows that for sure, I suppose. :D

When you get right down to it, every trade or position is based upon analysis of what one thinks will happen. Whether it's looking for a long term swing trade to unfold over many months as Surf is looking at, or the next 5 hours, it's all essentially the same, and the appropriate risk...

Well, at the rate gold seems to be going, we'll see $600 by the end of next month..:eek:

Yes, that's for gold coins. But you missed the point. Your anecdote about pawn shops paying $150/oz for junk gold is no different than my anecdote about buyers paying $900/oz for gold coins. In other words, neither one is reflective of the true reality of the market. If you want true...

Not really. Go to ebay and people are still paying (as of yesterday) $900 and above per ounce, more than $200 over spot. I suspect your sources are paying the prices they quoted you for junk gold, jewelry, etc., because if that's what they're offering for quality gold (gold eagles, etc.)...

I don't think anyone has ever seen a market like this in their lives. Unreal. :eek:

But the question is, what happens when the manipulation is revealed? For the sake of argument, what would happen if December physical delivery of futures contracts failed?

Just curious, where do you expect gold to bottom out at?

Forgive my confusion, but the article you quoted suggests inevitable inflation and other "old fashioned correlations", which would bode well for gold. Yet you remain convinced gold is destined to keep moving lower and that those old correlations no longer apply. So where is the disconnect?

I too have been hearing about troubles with the Euro. I don't know about it disappearing completely, but I think par between the EUR and USD is entirely possible, if not the EUR falling even further than that. I'm definitely taking a hard look at a short EUR/USD trade.

Well, looking at a long term cash chart, we're sitting just about at the upward sloping trendline. Went long this morning with a stop at 103 on a closing basis. Close below that, and the 3 year trend gets broken, and look out below.

Man, this is ugly. So conflicted....want...to...buy...dip...can't...pull...trigger...

Doc, I agree. This area is very good to begin building a long position, IMO. I can see a bounce from this area back to perhaps the 115 area on the not too distant future...

Whoever actually came up with this evil idea should not only be booted from the government, they should be tarred and feathered.

Yes, I believe there's a good chance of at least a bounce now up to the 115 area. I covered the remaining portion of my short position at 110 and went long at 109'27.

It reminds me of the adage "being right too early is the same thing as being wrong". He may be right over the long run about bonds ending up highter, but it's just plain stupid to fight a trend, even if it's a short term one.

First, ultimately only you can decide what's best for you. As a hardcore swing trader, I would normally recommend the practice of selling halves. However, with the bond trade, there is considerable support at the 109-110 area, so based on the parameters of your trade I would probably sell the...

My initial stop was at break even, 118, (give or take a tick or two based on bid/ask spread) given that a break below would signify a break of major support. On trades like this, I expect the trade to be positive right off the bat, and therefore if it didn't go my way, I'd back out immediately...

I have backtested before, and again, it has consistently shown my trading to have benefitted from selling halves than getting out all at once. There were many, many trades where the wiggles would have stopped me out with break even had I held out the whole position for my target, whereas when...