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Talk about represetatitiveness heuristics, ha? :D I stand by what I said. Unless a company has 100% dividend payout ratio, the price will be an increasing function of time, there are other explanations too, but this one is the simplest. This of course is a long term perspective. Since...

It's b/c if someone has no clue what will happen, the odds are better if you go long. In other words, unless you know a specific reason why a stock should decline, the expectation is it will go up gradually (even assuming randomness, most models of random walk include a positive drift for this...

Hehehehe. What d'ya think?

Most maybe. But to me it's the TA that does have logic and that is objective that is most valuable. That's the only kind of TA I ever use. I do look at other popular things at times just to see what the herd is seeing so I can know what they are likely to do. [B] You might be right. I...

Might as well start just about now :D. I hope it's not late yet. I saw a firm in Atlanta that has done it and is doing VERY well.

They do.

I didn't say the emotions and their effects won't be there. Of course they will. BUT, the opportunities they result in will most likely be quickly taken advantage of by automatic trading routines. While the emotions are hard to predict, their effects are often easy to spot. In many cases...

Yeah, I know, I was just reinforcing your point. :)

Good point. Except that whichever way you look at them they are still very wide compared to the underlyings. I'm not trying to make money trading options (well, maybe some, but that's not the main objective), I have a short term equity strategy and am tryng to hedge the downside... Thus...

US treasuries. Try to compete with the big boys in that market :D [B] Most likely. Although even that will probably end up captured by some automatic trading program... :(

Laughter is good for health. So I'm happy you had a few laughs :D But I don't see anything amusing or funny in what I said. If you step back 20 years or so, you'd find some opportunities that are very easy to exploit with even basic TA. Those who were the pioneers became quite rich. Look at...

Gee, guys. That is reassuring. I'm glad you found the time to explain what you meant. I asked a very specific question. I am not experienced in options trading and don't pretend to be, so I don't see the point of sarcasm and cynicism. If I am missing smth, it'd be helpful if you could at...

No, you don't seem to give them enough credit :D. They have tested it over many many more years than that and over various time windows, yearly, montly, weakly, daily, intraday. the results aren't a function of the bull market. The research is truely voluminous in this area. It may not...

Thanks Maglia Rosa. Yes, in that case I agree. But that's not what I'm looking at. I'm more interested in straddles. PS BTW, with what broker are commisions negligible if you do size? Didn't see any yet and I am interested in doing quite some size.

could you be a bit more specific??? I know I should have given an example or something. How big would a change in the underlying (mid cap with not so great liquidity in options) have to be for a straddle to be profitable? The spreads themselves are substantial, not to mention the premium...

ever tried the right-mouse button?

How can you guys do anything with options unless it's really long term (like several weeks or so), I've looked into it and the spreads/commisions are just outrageous! Even with what I thought were sizeable moves in the underlyings, the option transactions costs will eat all of it if not more...

Thanks vegasoul. For some reason many ET members almost pride themselves in despising academia, without realizing how much good stuff is being done there (I guess they just don't understand most of it and how it can be used to make $$$). Out of all the academics in finance, there are some who...

One of the bugs that I noticed a while ago was that the gainers/losers ranking list didn't account for the splits and had some erroneous entries. I contacted the tech support people but never found out as to whether it was fixed. I only use the platform to execute the trades and don't use that...

talk about contrarian investing... Almost got my butt kicked, but ended up in the green...