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Yes, so long as you have the capital. For those attempting to make the adjustment from a currency debasement (inflative) to a savings oriented (deflative) economy, only the fortunate will succeed. The rest will see their wealth, and prospects for ever recovering it, disappear into the wind...

Hence, perhaps having a declining rate of savings, by this argument, isn't bad? It acts as a brake on V and increases Q. Is this the new paradigm?

It has occured to me that current global economic thought by TPTB (central bankers, policy makers, whoever) has been centered on Irving Fisher's equation MV=PQ Where: M=money supply V=Velocity of money P= Price Q=Quantity Rearranging the equation gives us M/P=Q/V. Thinking...

AP - The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that personal spending shot up by 0.9 percent, the strongest gain in six months, while incomes rose by a solid 0.7 percent. <snip> The bigger rise in spending compared to incomes kept the personal savings rate in negative territory at a minus...

Past history does not constitute any significant edge in the FX markets. Just wanted to know if custys and specs had been trading size primarily in the cross. The move is a bit over, woudn't you agree? Still don't think that there are any interbank FX people on here.

If EUR/$ goes to oh,say, 4.0 .... and earnings in adjusted USD are proportional to the devaluation of the currency, then dow 36K doesn't sound too ridiculous. Unfortunately, the dollars you will be redeeming won't be worth bupkus.

:sigh: reminds me of that old quote, "With friends like these...." :D Unfortunately I don't think there is anyone here who sees real flows. Not an indictment, just a statement of fact.

I still think you are an early adopter, but your time horizon is shorter than mine (I plan to go short for 6-18 months)

Anyone here with any real street FX connections seeing big movements in the EUR/JPY cross itself? Is this what is driving EUR/USD and USD/JPY vs the other way around? Cross collapsed from 143 to 137 and change last few days.

Bill Gross et al are excellent commentators, but they continually are doom and gloomers and you could miss half the run up of any market protecting yourself buying 4.5% zeroes as a deflation hedge, then seeing your assets get wiped out through currency devaluation. As currency devaluation...

The only realistic solution to fiat currency risk is to devote more and more of your personal time to 'riding the waves' and being the first kid on the block to leap from overvalued fiat currency to undervalued currency with the rest of the sheeple following you. Rinse and Repeat until...

Encouraging economic news is assured until after the mid-term elections. The question is, will the market believe the news?

You can't have it both ways, you know. Frighten the populus to hell to control them; and then don't be surprised when they perpetuate that fear without your input, even if it is inconvenient to your goals.

Yeah, this is probably going to be a major blunder on bush's part. It won't go through.

Hmmm... sorta my thoughts there, but maybe the target is 60. Any thing to back it up more than a hunch?

Interestingly, some folks at the AIER have done a calculation on that. It is detailed in their publication - homeowner or tenant? For people in lower tax brackets, as these people would be in, the answer may not be so straightforward. http://www.aier.org/publicationlist.html (for advice...

But still intensely conservative.

That's a useful site BTW... thanks!

hey mccurto.... WTF is going on with the 30yr? I just don't get it. I just don't.

Sorry, but I fail to understand how what you posted has any relationship to what I posted. Its simple. 1+1=2. 1-1=0. Do the math. Don't shoot the messenger... I just call it like it is.