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short of a spectacular upside surprise in the numbers my initial thoughts are this is going to get ugly. if we can't collapse today, i'm going to start buying.

Indicies .8% in the red 1 hour before PPI and Retail Sales. Citi Cutting Dividend. Market betting on a 50-75bps cut. Thoughts?

The macworld play is too obvious now...look at everyone piling in today. For some reason I have an ominous feeling about tomorrow.

yep, but i also know what happens during PPI and CPI when the market is factoring in a big cut ;) less than 1% of account equity. if they expire worthless so be it! but if they don't...

just picked up some cheap lotto tickets 134 SPY PUTS expire friday, 7 bucks a piece! get em while there hot. nassim taleb would be proud!

yeah, this is kind of ominous...a couple of months ago these FF predictions would have had the markets up 500 points. now the dow can't even hold a 100 point move.

ty info. yes, i think it is a matter of mucking about, of testing the waters to arrive at the correct conclusion. gone back into cash here.

yeah, okay, changing my view, nearly 50% expectation of .75 bps rate cut...lol

CAD looking really weak here against all reason. Oil higher, Gold Higher, FFF = 100% 50bp cut. TSX has diverged 1000 points vs. the dow in a very short time I know a lot of people are shorting CAD betting we will follow USD weakness...but i think these folks will ultimately be wrong...

trading cash for shares at 30 and trading shares for cash at 80 - sounds like trading to me, the time frame is irrelavent.

let the games begin, index futures up from friday. this feels to me like one of those up in the evening, up 1% by morning and 2%+ by the close scenarios. i could be spectacularly wrong here, but going to throw it out there! good luck to all in the coming week.

well i think you begin to find as you delve deeper into understanding what makes various markets move, currency or otherwise, that they are all interrelated. i don't do backtesting, but i'm sure there are lots of folks on this site that can help you with that. my point was simply if you are...

p.s. unlike scalping where you get instant feedback and can develop expertise very quickly from the sheer number of trials, long term trading takes a long time to develop because the feedback happens rather slowly. i don't think 700 hours of reading is any substitute for this...just like 700...

how much longer are we talking? longer term time frames are driven by fundamentals more than technicals... i read dozens of books and spent thousands of hours thinking about this stuff, candlesticks included, but it was not until i realised that fundamentals (macro trends) are what drive the...

have you considered that the capitulation happened in august and that we've just been trading in a sideways range ever since? one thing i've been thinking about is that the long term top that everyone is looking at is actually a bottom (or consolidation, call it what you will)...but that is...

1. i think sentiment is overly bearish 2. imagine how many people are short this market 3. the price collapse that everyone is looking for has not materialized. on wed, thursday and friday every time prices look like they are going to collapse they run back the other way...there are buyers...

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/01/mozilo-severanc.html If he engineers a sale of battered Countrywide Financial to Bank of America, Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo stands to walk away with a severance package worth more than $110 million, the Los Angeles Times' Kathy Kristof...

man, i let this one get away on me. was waiting for a pullback which never materialized. someone hold my hand so i don't jump in here.

good luck with it! you might want to check out modern portfolio theory while you wait for the register to ring ;)

what is your average price?