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Then why does it continuously go back to sounding like one? (having the effect of obscuring the conversation about method...) Every so often a post pops out and I think to myself "oh-oh - here comes the sell again. What's this guy selling?" Certainly you are promoting your list and very...

Hi Man I agree. Also there is the big problem - the 'pseudo sales pitch' is obscuring and diminishing the conversation. Natalie

I guess we must be a pretty interesting bunch of people then if they keep coming around and trying to analyse us :) Natalie

I stand corrected - there were some new 52 week highs yesterday, but certainly not hundreds. How about reversing some of this for a bear market strategy. Looking for the most likely fallers? Natalie

That may have been true until a couple of years ago, but not so now. NYSE today for example - 2315 Advancing issues (when last I looked)- not a single new high. I didn't bother looking any further. Natalie

Well I look at it this way. I don't day trade stocks, but I do keep positions in stocks for a few days at a time. If a stock is trending up I'm looking for low points within the trend to go long and vice versa to go short. Natalie

hi Db, I know value investing and trading are worlds apart, but I was hoping that it would lead that way too. Not that I'm much of a subscriber to that school of thought, but at least open minded enough to listen and find out... Natalie

Mr Market I hope all the previous antics can be kept out of this thread and there can at least be some discussion of the method. You've acknowledged that this method was designed to take advantage of the bull market conditions that existed at the time, and as we all know, market conditions...

Man Yes - I agree entirely with all you are saying. Intersting that we humans already naturally do this to a large extent and adapt what we are doing according to the prevailing conditions. If a method stops working well, we've probably already replaced it with some thing that is working...

Interesing debate here. Backtesting over different periods usually has the equity re-set, so in that sense it does equate with having strategies that work some times and not others. In practice strategies don't always work all the time either and periods of heavy draw down followed by...

Mr Subliminal That explains why I thought the original maths was wrong. It wasn't after all. It was taking into account the permutaions you have illustrated here. Now you've answered one of the things nagging at me. I just didn't realise what I was looking at in the results. Natalie

The idea has merit, but also has quite a few dangers associated. For the sake of argument a system is being traded all the time, except when the system is Long (as per the equity curve chart) it is traded for real, and when the system is short it is 'ghost' traded instead and no money behind...

ROFL Natalie

I think you have made some good points there, especially the one about testing out strategies before using them. Knowing and understanding what works and why, and where the break even points are, seems to me to be one of the most important elements in finding strategies to trade. The original...

LOLOL - No the maths was wrong, but not my much. I realised where the error was when I started to get the same result on the spread sheets no matter what the order. The reason it will always lose is, as I suspected, that every loss is made from a higher cash level than its corresponding...

more of the same

These make interesting reading.

Mr Subliminal Sure. I'm going to take a different approach to this first though, because I'm suspicious of the results and can't find the errors. So I'm going to build a spread sheet with several 'scenarios' in it and the corresponding results, and I'll post that instead. If you can give...

Well, here's the interesting bit. The order didn't matter when a fixed sum was risked, and the outcome was evens whether it was 50/50 on 10 trades, 100, 1000 or whatever. However, when the sum risked was a % it made quite a big difference. It does seem that the draw down from the losers...