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I don't know about the other stocks, but I did pick up some nly earlier this year. It is a mortgage stock in the sense that they buy MBS, but really, their fortunes are tied to the yield curve far more than the health of the housing industry. They got crushed in the past year w/the...

Careful there, my friend. Statements like that can come back and bite.:D Could it be that the steepening in the yield curve we are seeing is just a typical move as the market perceives an end to the rate hike cycle? I see that the Fed chose Good Friday to leak a story to Greg Ip about how...

Widespread gas lines occurred in the 70s because of bad economic policy by the Nixon and Carter administrations. Things like price controls, and windfall profits tax distorted the market clearing price of gas - kept it artificially low. When that happens, suppliers will want to supply less of...

I'm not sure its much of a change. I think the conclusion he is reaching is that you ought to be in short term treasuries - you aren't getting paid enough to either go further out on the curve or go for riskier bond classes. Its pretty much the same thing PIMCO has been saying since late last...

That "crazy talk" you're referring to has officially started. http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BECD850D3%2D1D59%2D4E72%2DB4F4%2D8BA4FB5AE909%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

The dollar seems to be tied exactly to short term rates - when the two years rally, the dollar drops. When the 2 years get hammered the dollar goes up. I've been looking for a spot to go long the Swiss Franc as their economy is smoking and their central bank doesn't fool around w/that kind...

Pretty remarkable stuff for Bernanke to put himself out on a limb like that. He is at a large for risk for being considered a national joke very early in his career as Fed head. The problem is that Ben is confusing how we got to inversion w/what it will mean. It isn't important WHY the...

True indeed. Never underestimate the inertia of a bureacracy and the policy that they are on. Don't forget though, that one week ago, Euro$'s/FF were discounting 5.25% - only to rally about 20-25 points. I agree that there isn't much risk/reward in taking a position in Sept Eurodollars...

I'd be suprised if the Fed goes to 5.5%. Based on my reading of recent speeches, I don't think there is any question that some voting and non-voting members of the FOMC want to stop at 4.75 or 5. When I start hearing lines like "... we must remember that monetary policy changes work w/a lag"...

Good article. Berry was the Fed's chosen "leaker" while the G-man was in charge. It looks like things haven't changed since he left. Of course, short term yields plummeted yesterday alolng w/a report by well-connected Medley Advisors that the Fed was about done, so Berry wasn't first in...

No. I'm just speculating what might happen on Friday. The long position I am building has nothing to do w/what the number might be. I am a position trader. I expect to build this position up over a period of weeks and hold it for a period of months (of course, if the market moves too sharply...

^^^ I hope you're right.:) I started building what I expect will be a large long position in 2 yrs (actually Dec 07 eurodollars) on Tuesday. Poole has been pretty clear in 2 speeches this week that he thinks the economy is roaring ahead. I assume Fed guvs get a 'heads up' before major...

Yeah, I saw that over the weekend. Its funny how markets work. Since early January, long-dated eurodollar futures have gone from pricing in a Fed Funds stoppage at 4.50% to beginning to price in a stoppage at 5.25% - and NOW Lehman makes their call. Where was Lehman 50 basis points ago? It...

Euro$ futures are now starting to discount a 5.25% Fed Funds rate. At this point, they are only saying its a small chance, but it is out there. Pretty wierd. I haven't heard anyboy out there talking about 3 more tightenings by the Fed. Curve shorteners may find themselves on the wrong side...

Great thread. There is no volatility in Euro$'s either. The Fed has become so transparent, that the market just sits and waits for surprising economic releases or surprising Fed-speak. Other then selliing vol, I don't know how anyone can make a living trading Euro$'s anymore.

I trade mostly interest rate futures. Occasionally FX or Ag. I have no technology needs - at least from my broker. I have no need for advice from a broker. I just need an order-taker.

I had an account w/REFCO, but closed it this week. I'm pretty sure the part of REFCO I dealt with is not affected by all the nonsense going on w/the rest of the company, but why take a chance. Until the dust settles, I'm looking for a new broker. I am strictly a discretionary trader and I...

Something was definitely up in June/July. Gross was out on the wires talking about how 10 yrs were going to 3%. The bond market was trying its best to tank, but prices just kept jumping up for no apparent reason. Now, the squeeze is over and 10 year yields are up about 40-45 bp from their...

T-notes back to where they started when GS started buying.

Latest models show Dennis giving the dry areas of the Midwest a serious soaker. W/O Dennis, beans were on their way to $9.00 and corn to $3.25. With Dennis, beans are headed to the low 6's and corn back to the $2.20's.