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If I told you January 1, 2023 that by March 20 the second and third biggest bank failures in the US had happened and that Credit Suisse had ceased to exist and had been taken over by UBS, interest rate kept climbing, inflation was still high, would you believe SPY would have yielded a positive...

I am not saying we are in a repeat of the GFC. The losses are real as we witnessed last week. When depositors want their money, it is not there. That is real. You cannot tell depositors to wait until maturity. The money goes to too big to fail banks. That is what played out last week and...

I can't count the number of economists, analysts or other experts stressing how much better banks are capitaliczed now compared to before the GFC. "Total capital buffer in the U.S. banking system...

Are financial markets assumed to be efficient (that is you cannot beat markets without assuming more risk) or are they not efficient as a basic assumption in the CFA program? The answer is a resounding yes. If your answer is no you have not read the CFA curriculum. I know most portofolio...

The foundation of the CFA program is the efficient market hypothesis. That obviously needs to be "unlearned" for trading to make any sense. If I had adhered to the foundation of the CFA program, I would have worked as an employee for the last 16 years and I would most likely have earned a lot...

That is correct. However, the CFA program does not teach portfolio managers to beat the market. You are taught you cannot beat the market. You are taught ethics, economics, financial statement analysis etc., but not to beat the market - only to manage risk. I see the CFA program as I see most...

My employer at the time encouraged everyone to take the CFA in order to advance. That was my motivation. I did not say it ruined my trading. I said I had to unlearn what I learned at my Master in Science in Finance and the CFA curriculum. This is not rocket science. According to academia and...

I have a Master of Science in Finance and took the 3 CFA levels. I had to unlearn it all to become profitable. Been trading full time for 16 years after unlearning and do not have to work again.

It’s counterproductive. According to the CFA curriculum markets are efficient and trading has no purpose.

https://www.ft.com/content/9f6149bc-75ff-4e26-b8dc-fbd2b82900b7 https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0614/2954/7162/products/60120-72.png?v=1670432056&width=1646

I assume most CFD brokers buy/sell short the underlying to hedge the position. Hence I am convinced there is a borrow fee. However, they probably also try to match orders internally in which case there is not need to hedge the underlying.

There are borrowing costs on leverage

I assume you pay borrow fee. I just can't seem to find it on IB's web page.

I will stop calling it religious the day I can do something cheaper/faster/more efficient with BTC than I can with conventional currency. Crypto has often been compared to the internet revolution. At his point of the internet revolution (same number of years since introduction), the internet...

I am sure that is the reasoning behind some of the money flowing into BTC on the back of the SIVB failure. They will eventually self-custody significantly less wealth. I am with Charlie Munger on this one. But the discussion is so religious so let it rest and let's settle it down the line.

When banks fail while crypto make a hyperbolic move up, it is a solid marker the economy is still firmly in bubble terretorry.

If I was Chair of the Federal Reserve, I would continue hiking until Bitcoin was below at least 1.000. That is probably the best marker for when inflation will be under control.

If you have a more complex strategy to pinpoint specific stocks and this is just how you implement it, then I cannot say whether it works. Maybe it does work. I am just addressing the simple strategy of focusing on breakouts where the sole criteria for selecting stocks is breakout. So I am sorry...

I am sorry. I do not want to provoke anything. But surely you must realize that this strategy if applied across the board has been tested and tried by thousands of traders and computers and trading firms and academics through time and if it yielded a consistent profit would be arbitraged away...