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Petromatrix report by Oliver Jakobs is quite good too, again, it's not free Edit: Don't know of any squawks, in terms of fundamentals spot price is very largely driven by wider market sentiment - risk on/off etc. Spreads are moved more by the fundamentals often, and there is no way to get a...

Cheers for that Bone, makes more sense. You come out with a figure of $1.11 roughly - does that equate to refining margin? Obviously can't be per bbl of crude, so is it to make a gallon each of HO and RBOB - which combined are worth about $6 - requires $4.89 of crude? Just like to get my...

I keep abreast of refinery outages, in general I don't think it affects the way I trade much at all - but I don't do much front end so that's probably why. These are futures flies, rather than options - most of the strategies I trade are two points wide synthetically i.e. 0.08 bid at 0.10, I...

Is this the right formula to chart the 321: http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalprod/quotes/chart_overview.action?types=spread&symbol=%3D%27CL+Z1%27+-+%28%27HO+Z1%27*14%29-%28%27XRB+Z1%27*28%29&chart.overlay=&chart.period=D&chart.bartype=CANDLE&chart.bardensity=LOW&x=13&y=10&chart.studies=...

Not traded the 321's yet but am planning to look into them - currently trade Brent Gasoil and WTI - used to like trading the arbs/boxes between Brent and WTI but I can't logically justify doing that anymore, so I've been meaning to get into other markets vs WTI, still within energy. Do you...

Be pleased to, this is the chart of the April/May Crack box...

OK Bone - that's fair enough and I respect that. I've seen you post several examples of winning trades, but I haven't seen you post a loser - I just thought it would be interesting if that ZZZ was a loser to see you discuss that - obviously only in broad terms - you've got a program to sell...

Mate - we are agreeing here... I play rich/cheap on flies and condors, don't trade too many two-legged spreads, although will take legs in and out of them - but then I am more going with momentum like yourself. Because you listed a fly - the Z1Z2Z3 - I wondered if you were still momentum...

Agree with fading spreads, although I do do it regularly, it's not a smart long term trade - only ever a day trade for me. But the ZZZ fly would be traded on a mean reversion basis no? That's more what I was referring to when I asked about getting caught on it? That Gasoil spread is...

Of course, I totally understand that - just wondered if on any of the strategies you could comment on past trades - not in detail, just the broad outlines:- so did you generate a buy on VZ Brent based on stats? Or is the chart showing a current setup you have and so can't comment on? Or, on the...

Just to show my point on the ZZZ fly, here is the chart - it's on the weekly timeframe, which shows the last year of the strategy - for those of you who don't have charting packages for these babies :)...

Hey Bone, I trade a lot of these strategies and so am interested in learning as much as I can - obviously I don't expect you to divulge your methods but I kind of want to ask you what you see in some of these markets. The Oct/Dec Brent for example, obviously been pretty relentlessly up...

OK cool, maybe one of those seasonal research places can help i.e. MRCI - although surely Bone will know a lot about this. In Brent and Gasoil futures the spread can ignore cost of carry, have seen WTI do it as well - because your definition of cost of carry can be outweighed by short term...

Not sure to be honest with you, I only trade futures and stay away from the front of the curve so have no idea - I think it's probably fairly case specific, as in per participant. Why do you want to know?

Futures butterfly, long the first spread, short the second. I suppose a genuine fly would be consecutive months but as long as the wings are balanced they work. You can stick them in an autospreader, but a lot of guys leg into them via the individual spreads for a bit of edge - when the market...

Totally agree - not sure how you do that on an automated basis - but as Foo, I think, said earlier, you do need to be in front of the screen watching the market a lot knowing where you can get filled etc. quite a bit of fly trading in oil boils down to getting into the individual spreads at good...

Ha, yeah - that's the idea - the problem is that a short term trade has morphed into a long term trade at a rubbish level, and it may hamper your appetite for the trade etc. at least it gives you something to job around :)

This is something that happens in energy at least, you can have the same strategy and have one range for intraday jobbing, and another range for longer term positions, bias is pretty much always going to be the same, but there are opportunities - obviously if you get caught out there are problems.

I'd be very interested in learning more about this approach. I've had a stab at doing it - I've picked some Brent flies as that is my main market. I picked a time frame where this particular market seemed to mean revert well - ZHM Brent since May 1st this year, chart is here...

It was actually useful for charting spreads on your phone or whatever, what would motivate them to remove the only useful feature of their website.... morons