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The low number was priced in, and the housing number surprised everyone (highest in 12 years), but the market is on Fed Watch. I'll post the reason when I get to work, as the document I found is there on my laptop.

And I'm still short - this time from 1.3060.

What's your target, Trade-ya?

And now, with the Core rate rising twice as much as was anticipated, we're back on Fed watch.

I agree with you, Tradingwise. I think Cutten's ideas certainly have merit and even some historical significance. But it's just too soon. I don't believe (read: guess) that this is destined to take place in the next month, which is - for all intensive purposes - what I'm trying to play here.

Trade-ya, More on what I was saying yesterday. Echoing my thoughts on this is Jack Crooks from BlackSwan trading. I dunno if you put much stock in him, but I've always liked him - even when he was a EUR bull last year and I wasn't! :( ---------- I think the story on the dollar, at least...

In fact, I just took out some nice long positions in the Kiwi and Aussie in defense of a potential run on the DOW and NASDAQ today.

Another thing I believe EUR is dependant on is what will happen with the market open in the US. People are antcy that equities are about to get really hammered after last week.

I'm curious - what are your thoughts on what a significantly higher EUR will do to the EU? Ie, exports, etc.

First, let me say that in regards to experience in forex, I humbly yield to you, sir. That being said, however, I gotta go with my gut on this. I do agree - long term, nothing but dollar weakness on the schedule. But mid term, ie by June ish, dollar will be the key. Cheers.

From a technical perspective, I think the EUR turned the corner. From a fundy perspective, I cannot see this lasting. Rates will continue to rise in the US, and they'll continue to sit still in the EU, well into the end of the summer. This, of course, is just my take. Tomorrow's price data...

Yeah, how about that release, eh? Glad I went short at 1.2950 again! I'm telling you, this is the exact opposite of when the Euro was rallying last year despite whatever news that came out. Back then, it would sell on good data, and then sell again on bad data. the market didn't care, all...

Let me know if you find the ring, because I'd like to manipulate the eye!

It's all about rates now. As the Fed continues to hike rates, and the EU does not, that's all the market will care about. Forget the news, forget logic, etc. Remember the EUR run from last year? People were standing around going "I don't get it, why the hell did the EUR hit a new high...

Every time I hear someone say something like this, I think back to that quote: "The market can remain irrational far longer than traders can remain solvent."

I think the difference here is that Trade-ya plays for the long term (correct me if I'm wrong, man). And in the long term, I think the trend is for short dollars. However, in the short term, check the 1.2745 range and load up if it fails to drop below. Because we're going right back up again.

Welp, I was wrong about the measured thing. Said the Euro would regain after the release if the measured word was in it, and it collapsed instead because the rest of the statement hinted at a more aggressive tightening. Which is precisely why I stood aside and didn't open a position - I...

If you want to split hairs, we all guess. Guessing is not knowing. They may be educated guesses, but it's still a guess. Unless some of you know 100% what the market will be doing. If you do, please send me a PM posthaste! -Ivan

Concur.

Everyone publically says that they're convinced "measured" will stay in, and then they turn around and hedge (which is normal, I suppose). I've shorted EUR up until today ever since mid last week. But I'll close out and stand aside for the announcement. My bet (note: bet) is that the EUR...