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As I mentioned, risk to reward ratio is the probability component of expectancy,which is just a best guess,individual perception of profit to loss target distance, differs from person to person.It means even less than the (statistical avg profit) component of expectancy which is at least a...

Expectancy is just a jargon to impress beginners because its components probability and average win-loss ratio simply means your best guess in target distance & a historical variable which changes. This statistical number may look good until it encounters a black swan situation.

There is nothing wrong with guessing if you win. If you still need to justify to others that you won completely by analysis or skill, you are not ready to trade...

Jennifer Connelly's educated guess based on logical deduction? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWw9y8UHs9c

No, he does not. That is why he writes books. I could also say something general like " Trading is not about losing but how much you make when you win." .i.e. your loss does not need to be "managed" after a trade is made because it should had been planned ahead but its the stages of profit...

Nice planning, but the Law of large numbers overrules everything. i.e. In a large sample size, unknown no. of consecutive losses is possible for whatever probability, so you can't say a dice is loaded no matter what odds because large can mean infinity.Statistics is not your friend.

Well done.A+ :)

It would be best if we can actually increase the expected no. which seems to be mathematically fixed as 3 but if we can change the variance(risk) to occasionally have 5 or all 6 magic beans, it would be good too. In stock portfolio management, we want low variance, the beta, for any given...

You can simply call them the annual top 3 stocks/candidates/hedge funds if magical beans sounds abstract. Its not about knowing now but the ranking will happen to become a fact. This is an optimization problem.

Another insightful answer .i.e. pick only stocks or sector that you personally make most $ historically.

You can always start with one bag and keep picking as you described but in this problem you can't identify if any bean is magical until end of the year.

Not sure, does anyone know if alternating bean selection from the 2 bags in varying groups sizes helps to improve overall chances of the final 10 having most magic beans.

Very good, I am impressed:cool:

Actually my question is about picking best 3 performing stocks from 2 different sectors. The problem is you won't know which 6 will perform best until end of the year but you are allowed to pick 10 from 20 and you want it to include as close to all 6 best as possible. I.e. You can't draw one at...

You have 2 bags of beans containing 10 beans each. In each bag, there 3 magic beans. How do you maximize the number of magic beans selected if you are allowed to pick 10 beans out of the 20 altogether? You can mix them if you want. I.e. If you do not mix the bags and just pick any one bag, you...

With riots a common scene, UK is no different from Spain, Greece,etc. Maybe it could be better off with Johnny English a.k.a Mr Bean as the PM, less debate more comedy:p

A more interesting question here would be "Is it more profitable to just Hold with the trend (solely on daily chart) Or trade with the trend (say trade in/out based on 4hr chart but Only in direction of daily chart)?" Maybe the more experienced traders can explain their views based on P/L...

You can always use an adaptive trailing MA stop on the opposite side and hope for retracement to reduce losses but it wouldn't be as eventful as account balance stops used by hedge funds.:p

Mental stops can make you mental and hard stops can be too hard on yourself. More experienced traders use trailing or jumping stops. Even more experienced billion$ Fund managers use customer's account balance as stops.

The calories burned in pedaling 57miles a day everyday is definitely worth the effort even though the kwh energy storage may not be efficient, and the point is to keep the countless obese and unemployed occupied with better use of stimulus$.