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I believe this is fairly common in trading and it's caused by human psychology. The underlying reason is we humans tend to associate separate trades with some kind of logic or correlation, whereas they are completely random outcomes statistically. Gambler's fallacy is one example. Think about...

Edge is pattern recognition. Everything else is supplementary.

Being unique means it works specifically for you only. In the example of pattern recognition everyone uses the specific pattern(s) that one can consistently make money, i.e., a high probability of positive outcomes. The pattern(s) can be quite different, however. You have your pattern as...

Discipline itself is not an edge but a prerequisite, because discipline alone won’t give you any advantage over other disciplined traders/market participants. Edge by definition is something unique to you that can provide a high probability of certain trading outcomes in aggregate. One example...

About predicting the future in trading it is essentially aligning and reacting. You identify a trend, i. e., the likelihood of price going in one direction in the near future, and align to that direction by buying and react to market movements by being stopped out or setting a profit target...

Are you confident that you have a distinctive edge? If you cannot describe it in one clear sentence with supporting evidence then you don’t have an edge. Reading your trading posts so far I feel you don’t have any edge. If true, you should not trade big at all. Trade small until you gain an edge.

It’s an edge itself to be able to tell a real trend turning point, which is by no means easy or obvious. When everyone realizes the turning it’s often too late.

I still do “uptrend - buy and hold”, but almost got rid of “downtrend - buy more”. Also trying hard to “buy low sell high & sell high buy low”. :D

Why not long on a big up day?

If one is truly successful one can always do better until one wins all the $ in the world, but that’ll never happen. Therefore, it’s not easy to get bored.

Just bought this from Amazon.

I believe this is closer to the truth. Guess a real edge is hard to find in day trading or investment. Now I am inclined to think edge is a random thing and it’s very few and far between. To achieve an edge is pure luck for individuals. Everything else can be achieved with enough time...

LOL all the mutual funds make billions from management fees and yet very few beat the stock market index. Sounds like you admire those fund managers. You can invest with them. I have heeded Buffett’s advice and put all my retirement money in the SP500 index with a 0.1% annual fee and I am doing...

Haha, Buffett won’t trade the $100k on futures. Instead, he will invest it and beat the index consistently for 10, 20, 30 years.

If you don’t know what to look at then you have no idea how to identify the good from the bad. Cathy Wood is obviously a one-trick pony. When things didn’t go her way she kept betting big on her original ideas, with no risk management or adapting to the new market changes. She is just a gambler...

That’s an interesting idea I have never thought about.

I guess it is the personal preference/personality thing. Some fund managers actually end up trading/managing his/her own money only.

I used to think the market was always playing tricks with me. Now I realize my biggest enemy is myself, or the human nature/psychology to be exact.

When you’re that successful money is no longer the motivation. Do whatever makes you happy.

Why does one want to become a fund manager and have to deal with the investors? That’s a big headache and a big waste of time. If one is a truly good trader $100k is enough to start and within no time to get to a significant amount to trade big. I would never want to trade other people’s money...