Search results

Okay, fair enough, I agree with you. It is technically simple for humans, hard to program. That's been my experience too, and that's why still only a small percentage of automated systems work.

tr, good to see you posting. hope all is well.

Yep, when you are poor, the odds are hugely stacked up against you to get out of poverty. When you are rich, the odds are hugely in your favor to move further up. Whether you like it or not, that's the way things are.

see above.

Okay here is the explanation: some one said trading is technically simple, but emotionally hard. If it's technically simple, that means one should be able to automate it. If you automate it, then you have taken the emotion out of the decision making. Therefore, a lot (remember I didn't say...

seems to me you need someone to spell out everything for you.

Or may be you should have read the two sentences following that one.

Somehow I don't believe that's the whole story. There are a lot of talented programmers in the world. If it's a matter of automation, then a lot of those programmers will be rich. Among automated traders, perhaps still only 5% win. Just to add another wrinkle: 5% is the threshold most often...

Perhaps the reason there are more INTPs and INTJs here is because of the solitary nature of trading, but more importantly because of the pure problem solving aspect of it. These types triumph in my opinion by working hard for themselves, rather than working their social connections to get ahead...

It could be that ETers are even worse -- e.g., the 5% are the professionals working at banks, hedge funds, and top prop firms, while the rest (i.e., retailers) are the 95%. Or it could be that actually only less than 1% of retailers make it.

If you limit to traders posting on ET, is it still 95% losers? Or are the stats slightly better if you are posting / reading here...

Linear algebra is what ties together most of the branches of applied math, physics, statistics, etc. Without it, you wouldn't have quantum mechanics, or statistical mechanics, or astrophysics, or signal processing. I did not see this immediately after taking undergrad linear algebra and its...

Do you use volume information in your strategy? 1. yes, volume tells me something about liquidity, price discovery, and the state of the players involved 2. no, volume does not help in trading, it is a distraction and gives misleading signals

If the market is neutral, like a fair coin toss, then wouldn't you expect 50% to win and 50% to lose? why are the odds so skewed?

It's a secret.

If it's simple, why do 95% lose? Apparently it wasn't simple for 95% of people. By the way where does this 95% statistic come from?

I think that can't the the whole story because most of those low wage workers are illegals and most of them are not collecting government aid. Have you ever driven around the ghettos in a US city? You can see how they might be surviving on $5/hr. They eat mostly rice and beans. They live in the...

Actually, when you have residual correlations in your error terms, then I think it means that your model is not fully capturing the correlations in your time series. Have you looked at the ACF or PACF? What time series are you looking at?

Judging from the number of responses, either it is a completely hare-brained idea, or it is worth doing. The only reason I am thinking about this is because by using discretization as an alternative to smoothing, this simplifies my code tremendously compared to detecting patterns straight from...

Great ideas, thanks I might try it. I would think you may need to do this periodically as the spread will change. The other uncertainty is that a big determinant of the slippage is market orders (or lack thereof) for which we have no idea about.