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Hmmm, this could be a key post here. So, can the independent variable affect the dependent variable in a predictable way? There are some professionals that do not think so. ( I of course, am a rank amatuer) In theory, if you had very detailed knowledge of the entire financial sytem and...

This discussion, although interesting, seems to have devolved a bit, with each side just stating the same points over and over again. In other words, the random walkers simply refuse to accept the multiple proofs that have been placed before them. They can't admit that it's about...

would offer up that the markets are not random like coin flipping, but rather behave more like this message board. Within reason there is no predictable outside force that can swing the outcome of a coin toss. However, the markets and the posting and reading of a message board are dictated by...

sure, enjoy but please give opinions. Econophysics seems to be developing as a discipline but I have to wonder how much the PhDs at Goldman know that they can't talk about. This stuff is of more use to options traders than to straight position traders, but I do think it helps to understand...

nice article about Niederhoffer. what he didn't understand is that markets obey powers laws and not gaussians. power laws are fascinating, they are the distributions for scale free entities like markets. in other words they look the same in most time scales (like price charts can) and have...

one thing that always strikes me as funny, we seem to all support and talk to each other yet at the same time we are after each other's rolls- just strange to me. If I were successful, a lot of losers is good news.

One we can conclude one thing for sure then. It seems to be verifyable that Gann died with about $100K. We can then take this two ways: 1) he never did really make all those millions in the markets, or 2) He lost tens of millions of dollars he had previously made both ways the whole things...

I think that as long as you understand you are predicting in a statistical way then there is nothing wrong with being a 'predictor' - however I agree with most people here that it is quite stupid to make the hero calls such as "the dow will touch 9000 on december 15" .

good hunting optionpro007, but maybe you need a vacation?

"Maybe so, but I still think that there is a distinction between those who trade on the basis of preceived tendencies and those who "confidently" predict future price levels and the timing in which their chosen markets will reach those levels. The former are pragmatic traders. I view the latter...

I don't understand people who say predicting is a losers game when taking a position in the markets is in fact tantamount to making a prediction. Whether your time horizon is one minute or ten years does not matter, you would not be going long or short if you didn't have a prediction of market...

I am a little suspicious of people afraid of alcohol, they just seem a little too uptight to me. Studies have shown that greater health and longevity occurs among moderate drinkers, somewhat due to the physical benefits but more to do with emotional makeup IMO. Remeber Hitler would not drink...

"I think that the US debt as a percent of GDP is less than 3%. Same as person making $100,000 owing $3,000 on credit card. Most of you flat earth types don't understand just how large US actually is. China will have same problem as Japan did. These countries are too homogenous and do not...

QUOTE: "I believe that given the proper mindset anyone can find good quality employment - the catch is you have to be BETTER than someone else" true, BUT you not only have to be better, you have to be willing to work at the same wage. You might be better than the chinese guy, but at $30 an...

No but I'll let you try it. Create an account with my name on it with full legal rights and access, put in a million, and I'll tell good stories about you.

so KillAtWill, does that mean you disagree?

I know a way to get great returns with no risk, I am starting a hedge fund that invests in me. With a modest investment of a few mill you will get weekly (not quarterly) returns of grateful phone calls.

"iyo what will this macroevent be? just curious." the bengals will win the super bowl

why we went down today: because we did not go up.

most people probably exit upon losing all their cash