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Quote from jackbyrd: Might I suggest that the individuals who hypothesized a year end price with a decimal point be held to that exact pirce just for being a horse's arse. That being said, I certainly hope it is not too late for my prediction. I would like to submit 1225. Good day...

Do not worry so much about the investors, this is a results oriented industry. if you made me 25% per year, I would not care if you made gay porn all day long. I suspect most clients would not come here even if they knew about this place, they just want good returns and good tee times.

apex, does it really matter when he reveals his ID? i mean if baron holds the cash then rubber can't possibly win until he does it, or you win if he doesn't. would his badge ID make a difference in your bet posture? I just want to see a bet

I thought it was a little dramatic, then again $5K is a lot of cabbage to a guy like me. I don't think it is the same guy, just who the hell is that bored that they would do that? conditional does not imply beforehand at all, it just is part of the package and it could easily mean 'during' or...

patoo, I am not bored. is there a law that says you must read this thread? As far as i am concerned you can take yourself outside.

is it that big a deal to be anonymous?

before I took that bet, i would demand the definition of 'prestigious'. apex, you should have said 'precondition' but who cares just make the new offer

why don't you let the nigerians hold the wagers... and for $5K I will reveal who i am

I think I posted this earlier but a study has been done where the autocorrelation of prices has been calculated for an ungodly amount of data. It shows a short lived correlation of prices in the stock market. Other than that the predictability is 0, thats what an autocorrelation measures. This...

I would love to be a billionaire, and I would not care one cent about anyone calling me an asshole. In order for a bloke like me to actually become one I need some lucky breaks and 100% dedication to point of excluding all else in my life. The former is unlikely and the latter makes it...

Ok, these are some honest questions and comments, please don't take them otherwise. I'm participating in the discussion mostly to clarify and focus my own strategies or change them if necessary. You say you have to be "damn fast" to take advantage of it. Why? I don't see it that way. I've...

This ties in with another post made about large time frames being more predictable that shorter ones. You can see the growth of the overall forest, but that single tree may be a difficulty. Thoughts? but what do you mean by predictable? to the tick?-then i disagree.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from Perseus: I would be willing to bet you $20 that the shorter term predictions on this board are more accurate than the longer term ones. I would also be willing to bet you another 20 that you are not...

my research suggests that we are stuck in the range 1-100000 in the S&P for the next 14 years. I see no opportunity for profits, sorry man.

since you didn't give a date by which predictions had to be in, i'll be back on 30 december with mine.

In the above by bdixon619, so how's that gonna work when floor traders go away?

You're so right about "becoming a billionaire is a pointless endeavor". I realized this in 2000, and it left me empty for awhile. indeed, the more it becomes consuming the more pointless it gets... unless of course you really enjoy being consumed by it. Some things are just self...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from Perseus: Human behavior is not predictable, i disagree. the events that drive human behavior are not predictable, nor is the exact response to those events. hurricane Katrina and 9/11 are...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from Perseus: My point was sort of missed. It is this: markets don't drive themselves, they are largely event driven (the fundamentals)...

Cheese, I both agree and disagree. Most people don't need theory to make a system, they can stumble onto it by pure empiricism. I however have not been so lucky so I need to look deeper. I am more like Taleb in the article, I have seen my black swan. You dismiss theory too quickly...